Vista Energy Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. VIST is set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 25, after market close.

In the last reported quarter, the upstream company’s adjusted earnings were $1.48 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24, driven by higher production levels due to strong productivity of wells in Bajada del Palo Oeste and La Amarga Chica.

The upstream player missed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and beat in the remaining one, delivering a negative average surprise of 33.29%. This is depicted in the graph below.

VIST’s Estimate Trend

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. - Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. - Sponsored ADR price-eps-surprise | Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. - Sponsored ADR Quote

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.34 has not witnessed any revision in the past seven days, implying an upsurge of 482.6% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $699.99 million indicates a 48.5% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider for VIST

Based in Mexico, Vista Energy is an upstream player, having core oil and gas operations in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play, one of the world’s largest unconventional hydrocarbon resources.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the West Texas Intermediate spot prices (in dollars per barrel) for October, November and December 2025 were $60.89, $60.06 and $57.97, respectively, marking significant declines from the $71.99, $69.95 and $70.12 reported in the same period in 2024. Similarly, the Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (in dollars per barrel) fell sharply from $75.63, $74.35 and $73.86 in 2024 to $64.54, $63.80 and $62.54, respectively, in 2025.

The significant year-over-year decline in global crude prices in the December-end quarter of 2025 is likely to have hurt earnings of all upstream players and VIST will not be an exception.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for VIST this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Earnings ESP:  VIST has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank:  The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.80% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Diamondback Energy is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 23. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FANG’s earnings is pegged at $1.88 per share, suggesting a 48.4% decline from the prior-year reported figure.

Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ presently has an Earnings ESP of +1.89% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Canadian Natural Resources is scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on March 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CNQ’s earnings is pegged at 53 cents per share, suggesting a 19.7% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.

California Resources Corporation CRC currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.28% and a Zacks Rank #3.

California Resourcesis scheduled to release fourth-quarter earnings on March 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRC’s earnings is pegged at 49 cents per share, suggesting a 46.2% decline from the prior-year reported figure.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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