Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 20, after market close.
Alaska Air has an encouraging earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters (and missed the mark in the remaining two quarters), delivering an average beat of 73.17%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for Alaska Air this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced ALK’s Q1 Performance
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alaska Air’s first-quarter 2026 loss is currently pegged at $1.49 per share, wider than the loss of 76 cents in the past 60 days. Moreover, the consensus mark implies a 93.51% downward movement from the year-ago actual. For first-quarter 2026, Alaska Air projects its adjusted loss per share in the range of $1.50-$2.00.
Alaska Air's bottom line in the first quarter is expected to have been weighed down by higher fuel costs, operational challenges and weather disruptions.
It is quite evident as of now that fuel costs have risen owing to higher crude and refining prices, with refining margins being volatile in recent weeks. ALK’s lowest cost source of fuel comes from Singapore (which accounts for almost 20% of ALK’s fuel supply), and these refining margins have grown almost 400% since early February, from an average of 45 cents to $2.25 per gallon. This has led to economic fuel price expectations in the range of $2.90 to $3.00 per gallon for the first quarter of 2026, which is further likely to have hurt the company’s bottom line by at least 70 cents per share.
Apart from the higher fuel price, Alaska Air is grappling with multiple external events. These include weak demand in Mexico due to unrest in Puerto Vallarta, severe rainstorms and historic flooding in Hawaii, which collectively account for nearly 30% of ALK’s capacity. Impacts are being seen in both March and April, including during peak West Coast Spring Break travel periods. With respect to Hawaii, no long-term structural impact is expected, and hence, demand is likely to fully recover.
Had there been no adverse effects from the fuel, Puerto Vallarta and Hawaii storms, ALK’s results would have surpassed the midpoint of original guidance.
On the greener side, Alaska Air has been witnessing encouraging revenue trends while proceeding into the peak travel season. Consistent demand has been throughout the network. Unit revenues remain in line with previous guidance, and capacity is anticipated toward the high end of the prior guided range, up 2% (prior view: up 1% to 2%). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alaska Air’s first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $3.27 billion, indicating 4.16% growth year over year.
What Our Model Says About ALK
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Alaska Air this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Alaska Air Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Alaska Air Group, Inc. Quote
Highlights of ALK’s Q4 Earnings
Alaska Air reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 43 cents per share, which breezed past the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 11 cents but declined 55.7% year over year. High operating costs hurt the bottom line.
Operating revenues of $3.63 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.65 billion. Total revenues jumped 2.8% year over year, with passenger revenues accounting for 89.4% of the top line and increasing 2% to $3.25 billion. On a year-over-year basis, cargo and other revenues increased 11% to $146 million. Loyalty program other revenues grew 6% year over year to $238 million.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Ryder System, Inc. (R) has an Earnings ESP of +0.66% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Ryder is set to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ryder’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 17.33% downward over the past 60 days. Ryder’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed the mark in the remaining one, the average beat being 1.91%.
Union Pacific (UNP) has an Earnings ESP of +0.27% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. Union Pacific is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Union Pacific’s first-quarter 2026 earnings has remained unchanged over the past 60 days. Union Pacific’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark on the other two occasions). The average beat is 1.34%.
Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is Here
The AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. Little-known AI firms tackling the world's biggest problems may be more lucrative in the coming months and years.
SeeWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Union Pacific Corporation (UNP): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ryder System, Inc. (R): Free Stock Analysis Report
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).