CSX Corporation CSX is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised southward by 2.5% over the past 60 days to 39 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.51 billion, indicating a 2.45% increase from the first-quarter 2025 actuals.
CSX has a modest earnings surprise history, having lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and outpaced the mark in the remaining quarters, the average miss being 1.43%.
CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote
Let us see how things have shaped up for CSX this earnings season.
Factors Likely to Have Influenced CSX's Q1 Performance
CSX’s performance in the first quarter is expected to have been materially pressured by low shipping demand and high costs, resulting in lower revenues, reduced fuel surcharges and softer merchandise volumes.
Our estimate for first-quarter coal revenues is pegged at $458.8 million, indicating a 0.5% downfall from the year-ago reported figure. For Trucking revenues, our estimate is pinned at $183.4 million, suggesting 9.2% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
Ongoing economic and rail network challenges are expected to have weighed on CSX’s performance in the first quarter, as locomotive and crew shortages, along with other service disruptions, are anticipated to have eroded operational efficiency and shipment volumes. Persistent supply-chain constraints are likely to have strained service levels, while elevated capital spending is expected to have pressured the company’s bottom line.
What Our Model Says About CSX
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CSX has an Earnings ESP of -1.28% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Highlights of CSX’s Q4 Earnings
Quarterly earnings per share of 39 cents fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents and decreased 7.1% on a year-over-year basis. Results were hurt by low shipping demand and high costs.
Total revenues of $3.51 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.55 billion and declined 1% year over year.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Union Pacific UNP has an Earnings ESP of +2.18% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present and is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has remained unchanged at $2.89 per share over the past 60 days. CSX has a mixed earnings surprise history, as its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the preceding four quarters and missed twice in the remaining, with an average beat of 1.34%.
Expeditors EXPD has an Earnings ESP of +2.50% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present and is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 5.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has been revised upwards by 1.54% to $1.32 per share over the past 60 days. EXPD has an encouraging earnings surprise history as its earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the preceding four quarters, with an average beat of 10.08%.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).