Eli Lilly LLY has emerged as a dominant force in the cardiometabolic market, driven by strong demand for its blockbuster GLP-1 therapies, Mounjaro for type II diabetes (T2D) and Zepbound for obesity. Although both drugs have been on the market for just over three years, they have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. In 2025, the drugs generated combined sales of $36.5 billion, comprising around 56% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues. Investors will be closely watching the sales performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound when LLY reports its first-quarter 2026 results on April 30.
The robust performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound in the recent quarters has largely been driven by improved domestic supply following the expansion of manufacturing capacity. Additionally, sales of both drugs have been boosted by their rollout across new international markets. The robust momentum of its GLP-1 franchise is a key driver underpinning Eli Lilly’s upbeat 2026 revenue outlook of $80-$83 billion.
We believe that stronger penetration in the U.S. market and rising adoption in international markets likely fueled growth in both drugs in the first quarter of 2026. However, some headwinds are expected from lower pricing.
Beyond cardiometabolic health, Lilly’s broader portfolio, including the oncology drug Verzenio and immunology drug Taltz, also continues to deliver steady growth. The company’s newly launched drugs, including Omvoh and Ebglyss in immunology, Jaypirca in oncology, and Kisunla in neuroscience, are all contributing to top-line growth.
LLY’s Peers in the Obesity Space
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk NVO presently dominate the obesity market. Mounjaro and Zepbound directly compete with NVO’s semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for T2D and Wegovy for obesity. Like Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk also generates a substantial portion of revenues from both drugs.
Novo Nordisk secured the long-awaited FDA approval for its oral Wegovy pill to treat obesity and reduce cardiovascular risk in late December, followed by its commercial launch in early January. This marked a major milestone, making Wegovy the first GLP-1 RA available in an oral form for weight management. Compared with injectable formulations, the pill offers a far more convenient administration option. Earlier this month, Eli Lilly also secured FDA approval for its GLP-1 obesity pill, Foundayo (orforglipron), and was subsequently launched in the United States, making it a direct competitor to NVO’s Wegovy pill.
The obesity space has garnered much of the spotlight over the past year due to the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX and Structure Therapeutics GPCR, are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed both as oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the third quarter of 2026.
Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS study on its oral GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, for obesity, met its primary and all key secondary endpoints. Structure Therapeutics expects to initiate the late-stage program of aleniglipron in obesity in the second half of 2026.
LLY’s Stock Price, Valuation and Estimates
Shares of Eli Lilly have lost 15.8% year to date compared with the industry’s 2.5% decline. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
LLY Stock Price Movement
From a valuation standpoint, LLY stock is expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 24.87 forward earnings, higher than 17.14 for the industry. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.56.
LLY Stock Valuation
Estimates for Eli Lilly’s 2026 earnings have improved from $33.98 to $34.32 per share in the past 60 days, and estimates for 2027 earnings have improved from $41.89 to $42.00 per share over the same time frame.
LLY Estimate Movement
Eli Lilly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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