J&J Targets Double-Digit Growth by 2030 Despite Stelara Drag

Johnson & Johnson’s JNJ CEO Joaquin Duato said on the April 14 first-quarter conference call that the company has “line of sight” to achieving double-digit growth by the end of the decade.

In the first quarter of 2026, J&J’s total revenues rose 9.9% on a reported basis and 6.4% on an operational basis, excluding the headwinds from currency. Organically, excluding the impact of acquisitions/divestitures and currency, sales rose 5.3% on an operational basis. Against this backdrop of mid-single-digit growth, the ambition to reach double-digit growth over the next five years may initially appear somewhat optimistic.

However, J&J is already achieving double-digit top-line growth if sales from its multi-billion-dollar immunology drug, Stelara, are excluded. Stelara lost patent exclusivity in the United States in 2025, and several biosimilar versions were launched in the United States last year. According to patent settlements and license agreements, Amgen AMGN, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries TEVA, Samsung Bioepis/Sandoz, and some other companies have launched Stelara biosimilars. Stelara’s sales declined 62% in the first quarter, which was steeper than expected. Its loss of exclusivity (LOE) negatively impacted total revenue growth by 540 basis points. However, excluding Stelara, J&J’s top line grew in a double-digit range in the first quarter.

The first-quarter performance clearly shows that J&J is off to a strong start to the year. The company expects accelerated momentum throughout 2026 and for the rest of the decade.

In 2026, J&J expects total revenues in the range of $100.3 billion to $101.3 billion, representing reported growth in the range of 6.5%-7.5%. Operational sales growth is expected in the range of 5.9%-6.9%.

Though J&J expects accelerated growth in both the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments in 2026, the Innovative Medicine segment should be a critical franchise for driving company-wide top-line growth and profitability despite the Stelara LOE. The growth is expected to be driven by its key products, such as Darzalex, Tremfya, Spravato, Carvykti and Erleada as well as increased contribution from new launches like Icotyde, Rybrevant, and Inlexzo. J&J expects a more pronounced impact from new products in 2026 than in 2025.

In the MedTech segment, J&J expects better growth in 2026 than in 2025, driven by increased adoption of newly launched products across Cardiovascular, Surgery and Vision portfolios.

J&J believes that the depth of its portfolio and pipeline is stronger than ever.

J&J’s path to double-digit growth by 2030 appears ambitious but not unattainable. While the steep decline in Stelara sales presents a near-term hurdle, the company’s underlying performance — particularly excluding this impact — signals solid momentum. With a strong pipeline, expanding contributions from new and existing therapies and improving prospects in MedTech, J&J seems well-positioned to gradually accelerate growth. The coming years will be key in determining whether execution across these segments can fully offset legacy headwinds and turn its long-term vision into reality.

JNJ’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

J&J’s shares have outperformed the industry over the past year. The stock has risen 51.5% in the past year compared with 19.4% appreciation of the industry. 

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From a valuation standpoint, J&J is slightly expensive. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 20.19 forward earnings, higher than 17.14 for the industry. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 15.65.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings has risen from $11.54 to $11.55 over the past 60 days, while that for 2027 earnings has gone up from $12.40 per share to $12.48 over the same time frame.

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J&J has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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