First Solar FSLR is scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 results on April 30, after market close. The company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 7.3% in the last reported quarter.
Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to be reflected in the upcoming quarterly results.
Factors That are Likely to Have Impacted FSLR’s Q1 Performance
FSLR’s first-quarter 2026 performance is expected to have shown solid profitability primarily because of Section 45X manufacturing tax credits and a high mix of U.S.-produced modules. Management guided first-quarter adjusted EBITDA to roughly $400-$500 million, supported by 3.4-4.0 GW of module sales and $330-$400 million in tax credits. These credits are the dominant driver of margins and are expected to report higher profitability in the first quarter.
In October 2025, the company entered into two separate agreements for the sale of $699.7 million of Section 45X tax credits it generated during 2025 for aggregate cash proceeds of $668.2 million. FSLR received initial cash proceeds of $573 million during the year ended Dec. 31, 2025, and expects to receive the remaining cash proceeds of $95.2 million during the first quarter of 2026.
The company’s quarterly results are expected to benefit from the ongoing ramp-up of new U.S. capacity (especially Louisiana) and preparation for further localization.
Sales of First Solar's products have been expanding due to the steadily rising demand for solar energy worldwide, supported by rising energy consumption, declining installation costs and increasing awareness of sustainable energy. This is expected to have a favorable impact on the upcoming results.
However, tariffs are likely to weigh modestly on First Solar’s first-quarter results by increasing import costs and slightly pressuring margins. The company expects tariff-related expenses on imported finished goods and raw materials, which are expected to have raised the cost of goods sold and reduced profitability.
Another headwind in the first quarter is the low utilization of Southeast Asia factories (Malaysia and Vietnam). These plants are intentionally running at very low levels due to weak demand and tariff uncertainty. This is expected to have resulted in underutilization costs and pressured margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
FSLR’s Q1 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.80 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 43.6%.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pinned at $1.05 billion, implying a 23.8% increase year over year.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Modules megawatt (MW) sold is pinned at 3,587.4 MW compared with 2,910 MW sold in the year-ago quarter.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for First Solar this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here as you will see below.
First Solar, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
First Solar, Inc. price-eps-surprise | First Solar, Inc. Quote
Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is -13.47%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Currently, First Solar carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Investors may consider the following players from the same sector, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Energy Transfer ET is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports first-quarter results on May 5. It has an Earnings ESP of +7.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
ET’s long-term (three to five years) earnings growth rate is 12.11%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 38 cents per unit, indicating a year-over-year increase of 5.6%.
Sempra Energy SRE is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports first-quarter results on May 7. It has an Earnings ESP of +1.51% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
SRE’s long-term earnings growth rate is 5.18%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at $1.48 per share, indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.8%.
Nextracker Inc. NXT is likely to come up with an earnings beat when it reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on May 12. It has an Earnings ESP of +0.19% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.
NXT’s long-term earnings growth rate is 5.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pinned at 89 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 31%.
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