Is Walmart Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?

Is Walmart Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?

With a market cap of $944.9 billion, Walmart Inc. (WMT) is a global retailer that operates through three main segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club. The company runs retail and wholesale stores, eCommerce platforms, and digital payment services, offering a broad assortment of merchandise, groceries, health and wellness products, and financial solutions. 

Companies valued at more than $200 billion are generally considered “mega-cap” stocks, and Walmart fits this criterion perfectly. Guided by its everyday low price (EDLP) philosophy and omni-channel strategy, Walmart helps customers save money and live better by seamlessly integrating in-store and online shopping experiences.

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Shares of the Bentonville, Arkansas-based company have decreased 12% from its 52-week high of $135.15. Over the past three months, its shares have fallen 7.1%, lagging behind the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) nearly 10% rise during the same period.

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WMT stock is up 6.7% on a YTD basis, underperforming SPX's 10.5% gain. Longer term, shares of the retail giant have returned 22.3% over the past 52 weeks, compared to the 28.5% return of the SPX over the same time frame.

Despite a few fluctuations, the stock has been in a bullish trend, consistently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since last year.

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Shares of Walmart tumbled 7.3% on May 21 as investors were disappointed that the company maintained its conservative full-year outlook despite reporting solid Q1 2027 results, including a 7.1% increase in net sales to $175.7 billion and a 5% rise in operating income to $7.49 billion. The retailer reaffirmed annual guidance for net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and EPS of $2.75 to $2.85, while forecasting Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.72 to $0.74, below analyst expectations. 

Investors also reacted to mounting macroeconomic pressures highlighted by management, including fuel prices near $4 per gallon, a $175 million hit to Q1 operating income from higher fuel costs, slowing spending per visit growth to 1.1% from 2.8% a year earlier, and warnings about potentially higher retail price inflation in the second half of the year.

In comparison, WMT stock has underperformed its rival Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) on a YTD basis, with COST shares rising 15.4%. However, over the past 52 weeks, COST stock has declined 1.8%, trailing WMT stock’s performance.

Despite WMT’s underperformance relative to the SPX over the past year, analysts remain bullish about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” from 38 analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $140.89 is a premium of 18.5% to current levels.


On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

 

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