Old Dominion (ODFL) Up 4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). Shares have added about 4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Old Dominion due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Old Dominion Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates

Old Dominion reported solid first-quarter 2026 results, wherein its earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Quarterly earnings per share of $1.14 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05 but dipped 4.2% year over year. The decrease in ODFL’s revenue and an increase in operating ratio resulted in a year-over-year decline in the bottom line in the first quarter.

Revenues of $1.33 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.31 billion but decreased 2.9% year over year. The downside in ODFL’s first-quarter revenues was owing to a 7.7% decrease in LTL tons per day which was partially offset by an increase in ODFL’s LTL revenue per hundredweight. The decrease in LTL tons per day reflects the net impact of a 7.9% decrease in LTL shipments per day and a 0.3% increase in LTL weight per shipment.

LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, grew 4.4% year over year owing to the company’s long-term, disciplined approach to yield management. Revenues from LTL services came in at $1.32 billion (down 2.9% year over year). Other services revenues fell 8.7% year over year to $12.8 million.

Other Aspects of Q1 Earnings Report

In the quarter under review, LTL weight per shipment rose 0.3% and LTL revenue per shipment inched up 5.9% year over year. LTL shipments and LTL shipments per day were both down 7.9% on a year-over-year basis. LTL revenue per hundredweight, excluding fuel surcharges, grew 4.4% year over year.

Total operating expenses declined 1.9% year over year to $1.02 billion. The operating income decreased 6.1% year over year to $317.34 million. Operating ratio (operating expenses as a % of revenues) worsened to 76.2% from 75.4% in the year-ago quarter.

Old Dominion exited the March-end quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $288.08 million compared with $120.09 million at the end of the prior quarter. Long-term debt at the end of the final quarter of 2026 was $19.9 million, flat sequentially.

During the first quarter of 2026, Old Dominion rewarded its shareholders with $88.1 million through its share repurchases and paid $60.5 million in the form of dividend payments.

ODFL generated $373.6 million of net cash from operating activities during the first quarter of 2026. Capital expenditures were $62.6 million for the first quarter of 2026.

Outlook

For 2026, ODFL continues to anticipate its aggregate capital expenditures to be around $265 million, which includes planned expenditures of $125 million for real estate and service center expansion projects, $95 million for tractors and trailers, and $45 million for information technology and other assets.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 6.43% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Old Dominion has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a D. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Old Dominion has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Old Dominion is part of the Zacks Transportation - Truck industry. Over the past month, Landstar System (LSTR), a stock from the same industry, has gained 10.5%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2026 more than a month ago.

Landstar reported revenues of $1.17 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +1.6%. EPS of $1.16 for the same period compares with $0.85 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Landstar is expected to post earnings of $1.41 per share, indicating a change of +17.5% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +2.9% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Landstar. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of B.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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