Just hours before SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq on June 12, Iran announced it was placing Elon Musk's regional business interests squarely in its crosshairs. The threat adds a new layer of geopolitical risk to what was already the most closely watched initial public offering in stock market history.
Iran's state media outlet Fars Media reported that the country intends to treat all of Musk's companies operating in West Asia, including SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service, as legitimate military targets, according to CNBC.
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That includes a regional Starlink ground station. An "informed source" cited by Fars stated that Iran "reserves the right to attack all facilities related to (Musk)-managed holdings in the region and occupied territories."
Why Starlink Is in Iran's Sights
According to CNBC, Starlink, a satellite network, has played a direct role in U.S. military operations against Iran, supporting everything from aerial attack drones to unmanned surveillance and strike vessels. Iran alleged that the U.S. has committed war crimes against it with assistance from Musk-related companies, Fars reported.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard has previously targeted other American tech giants with similar rhetoric, including Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), per CNBC.
The threat surfaced at roughly the same time President Donald Trump posted on social media that the U.S. would strike Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT" and warned it would soon seize control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, along with other oil infrastructure, CNBC reported.
The exchange came amid a fresh round of escalation after Iran allegedly shot down a U.S. Army helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week.
SpaceX's IPO Valuation Was Already a Tough Sell
Strip out the geopolitical noise, and SpaceX's debut was already a stretch for many investors.
The company will raise $75 billion in its IPO by selling 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share, according to an SEC filing. That pegs SpaceX's valuation at $1.77 trillion, making it the seventh-largest U.S. company by market cap, ahead of Tesla (TSLA). Notably, Musk holds over 82% of the voting power, giving him near-total control of the board.
To put the valuation in perspective: SpaceX is being priced at roughly 100 times earnings, compared to about 20 to 25 times for Nvidia and around 10 times for Apple, explained CNBC. Morningstar analysts went further, warning in a note that SpaceX is "Significantly Overvalued" given their discounted cash flow model puts fair value at around $780 billion, roughly 48% below the IPO price.
The company also reported a net loss of $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026, following a $4.94 billion loss in all of 2025. SpaceX itself warned in its IPO prospectus that it "may not achieve profitability in the future."
As per a CNBC report, the retail allocation was trimmed to the low-20% range, down from an earlier estimate of around 30%, as institutional investors competed aggressively for shares.
What SpaceX's 'Strategic Tech' Label Means for Investors
The bigger argument is that SpaceX has become critical infrastructure for governments, militaries, airlines, remote communities, and artificial intelligence workloads, making it harder to replace than most companies.
As CNBC noted, SpaceX served as the primary launch provider for the U.S. government in 2025, handling 11 of 12 National Security Space Launch missions and all five crew and cargo runs to the International Space Station. About one-fifth of its 2025 revenue came from federal agencies.
Starlink, which accounts for roughly 75% of the company's revenue, had 10.3 million subscribers as of late March 2026, more than double the five million it had a year earlier, according to CNBC.
Wall Street's early reads were bullish.
Oppenheimer opened with an outperform rating and a 12- to 18-month price target of $190, implying 40% upside from the IPO price. New Street Research set a $165 target, with analysts noting that if SpaceX captures 50% of the broader space market at the high end of growth estimates, a fair value of $330 per share is possible by 2040.But the Iran threat is a real-world test of the "strategic tech premium" concept. For SpaceX, the same Starlink network that makes it indispensable to the U.S. military is now reportedly drawing live threats from a nation at war with the United States.
Matt Calkins, CEO of enterprise software company Appian (APPN), framed the IPO bluntly on CNBC's Squawk Box Europe: "This is a referendum on Elon and how much faith investors have in this individual entrepreneur."
With Iran targeting his assets and Wall Street betting on his vision simultaneously, few would argue with that read.
On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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