Altria (MO) has long been a favorite among dividend investors for its appealing yield of 5.8%, far above the consumer staples average of 1.8%. But ever since the tobacco industry started declining, investors have questioned whether Altria can sustain this high yield. The company’s upcoming Q2 earnings could probably answer this question.
www.barchart.com Strong Pricing Is Keeping Altria’s High Yield Safe
For years, Altria maintained its reputation as the king of the U.S. tobacco industry, owning best-selling cigarette brands like Marlboro. That led to the company generating steady earnings and cash flows, allowing it to return to shareholders. However, now rising health awareness, stricter regulations, and a shift in consumer preferences led to the tobacco industry’s decline. Nonetheless, the company’s dividends remained unaffected.
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In the first quarter, Altria paid $1.8 billion in dividends and repurchased shares worth $280 million. Although smokeable product volumes declined 2.3% in the quarter, net revenue still increased by 2.9%, and adjusted operating company income (OCI) grew 6.3%, all thanks to nicotine being an addictive product. As a result, even after raising prices, Altria achieved a 6.3% net price realization, indicating that higher prices continued to more than compensate for lower cigarette volumes.
Furthermore, despite lower consumer spending pressure, brands like Marlboro continue to stand out. Within the premium cigarette segment, Marlboro expanded its retail share to 59.5%. Meanwhile, Altria's discount brand Basic continued gaining market share, helping PM USA increase its total retail share versus last year. Moreover, Altria's broader portfolio allows it to retain consumers even when economic conditions push smokers toward lower-priced alternatives. If Q2 shows stable pricing and resilient market share, it would highlight the strength of the company’s earnings. That said, investors should keep an eye on this pattern in the Q2 earnings call. Management clearly stated that this marked the fourth consecutive quarter of moderating year-over-year industry declines. If cigarette volumes continue to decline but the company retains pricing power, investors will be confident that Altria will be able to maintain its dividend payouts.
Diversification Is Giving Altria's Dividend Story a New Layer of Protection
Altria is gradually diversifying its earnings beyond cigarettes by expanding its oral tobacco portfolio and smoke-free products. The company’s on! portfolio shipped more than 46 million cans during the quarter, representing nearly 18% shipment growth as nationwide distribution of on! PLUS grew. Additionally, PLUS reached 100,000 retail stores by the end of Q1. Altria is also awaiting decisions on additional nicotine levels and tastes, as well as authorization for a number of new product variations.
A meaningful improvement in retail share in Q2 will assure investors that Altria has another long-term earnings contributor beyond combustible tobacco. It also holds roughly an 8% equity stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), the world's largest brewer, which generated $160 million in adjusted equity earnings in Q1.
Dividend Sustainability Remains the Biggest Attraction
Interestingly, Altria’s forward payout ratio of 75% remains quite high, meaning the company pays out a significant portion of its earnings to shareholders. While this is beneficial for investors, it also raises questions about sustainability, especially if earnings and cash flows decline. But Altria has an answer for that. The company has a track record of 57 years of dividend hikes, earning its name as a Dividend King. These are S&P 500 ($SPX) companies that have not only paid but also hiked dividends for over 50 years in a row regardless of the economic scenario. For investors, this status reflects a long history of consistent earnings, robust cash generation, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
Altria expects adjusted diluted earnings per share between $5.56 and $5.72, representing a 2.5% and 5.5% YoY increase. Management also stated that earnings growth should now be more evenly balanced between the first and second halves of the year. Analysts expect a 4.1% increase in second-quarter earnings to $1.50 per share.
Another strong quarter will assure investors that Altria's high dividend yield continues to rest on a resilient business model.
Overall, on Wall Street, MO stock is a “Moderate Buy.” Of the 15 analysts covering the stock, five rate it a “Strong Buy,” eight rate it a “Hold,” one says it is a “Moderate Sell,” and one rates it a “Strong Sell.” MO has surged 26% year-to-date (YTD) and has surpassed its average target price of $70.50. Its high price target of $82 suggests Altria's stock can climb by 12.3% from current levels.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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