The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.48%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +1.38%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.95%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +1.39%.
The US stock market is trading higher as crude oil prices eased -2% on some relief after the US and Israel did not launch a military attack over the weekend. Also, top officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey are meeting with Iranian leaders in Tehran today to discuss the possibility of de-escalating hostilities. Meanwhile, President Trump told Fox News on Sunday that it’s “getting to be decision time” on whether he will make a deal with Iran or “finish it off.”
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The US is building up military forces in the Middle East into November and is evacuating non-essential embassy personnel in the Gulf region, fueling speculation that the US might launch a new military attack on Iran after next Tuesday’s (Nov 3) US election.
Stocks are also seeing support on better-than-expected US economic reports and on some AI enthusiasm sparked by Anthropic’s IPO filing today.
In some supportive news for stocks, the Sep Chicago Fed National Activity index rose to 0.07 from a revised -0.08 in August, and was stronger than expectations of a decline to -0.10. Also, the Dallas Fed’s Oct manufacturing index rose to 13.4 from 9.8, stronger than expectations for a decline to 8.8.
Markets are looking ahead to a busy week. At its Tuesday and Wednesday meeting, the FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged but maintain a hawkish bias. The ECB meets this Thursday and the Bank of Japan meets this Friday. This is expected to be an important week for the AI theme, with hyper-scalers Alphabet and Microsoft reporting earnings on Wednesday, and Amazon.com reporting on Thursday.
French bond yields fell today as France's weekend demonstrations did not involve the large-scale violence and looting seen in previous demonstrations. Also, Moody’s did not downgrade France’s debt rating and left France’s bond rating unchanged at Aa3 with a negative outlook. The French 10-year OAT government bond yield is down -12 bp to 4.90% today, after posting a 24-year high of 5.14% last Thursday.
Brazilian stocks are sharply lower after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva surprised the markets by winning the weekend Brazilian presidential election for a fourth term. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) is down more than -20%.
Stocks are supported by the prospect of solid quarterly earnings. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +26% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of last Friday, 120 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 80% beating estimates.
Markets are pricing in an 11% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +1.00%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.19%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -0.80%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down -1 tick. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.0 bp to 4.984%. T-note prices are supported by today’s sell-off in crude oil prices and a -0.7 bp decline in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.343%.
On the bearish side, the T-note market remains defensive ahead of the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, which is not expected to produce a rate hike but is likely to produce hawkish commentary about the likely need for additional rate hikes to address above-target inflation. The markets are pricing the odds at 90% for a +25 bp rate hike at the FOMC’s next meeting on December 9.
European government bond yields are mixed. The 10-year German bund yield is up +0.6 bp to 3.351%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -2.7 bp to 5.329%.
Markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at this Thursday’s ECB meeting.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven are trading mostly higher today, with only Apple showing a loss. Meta (META) is fractionally higher after announcing the sale of up to $95 billion of common and preferred stock to support its AI plans. Tesla (TSLA) is up more than +6% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight, citing the possibility of a buyout by SpaceX.
Chip stocks trading higher across the board, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rising +3.3% after last week’s -3.2% sell-off. Arm Holdings (ARM) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) are trading more than +5% higher. Lam Research (LRCX) and Intel (INTC) are trading more than +4% higher.
Anthropic officially filed for its IPO on Nasdaq today, with a ticker symbol of ANT. The company reported an $81 billion net loss in the first half of 2026. Anthropic officials hope to match or exceed SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO that raised $86 billion.
SpaceX (SPCX) is up more than +1% after news that the company signed a $40 billion chip-financing lease with Apollo Global Management to pay for the chips needed to fulfill its AI ambitions. SpaceX said in a statement released today that, “This lease diversifies our funding sources and addresses a notable portion of the funding required to deliver on our growth plans.” SpaceX also said it is seeing “less than one year payback periods” on its AI investments.
In a blockbuster natural gas deal, Range Resources (RRC) is up more than +16% on news EQT (EQT) will buy the company in an all-stock transaction. EQT (EQT), the largest independent US natural gas producer, is down more than -3% on the news. Range Resources is a pioneer of the Appalachian shale natural gas boom.
Surgery Partners (SGRY) is up more than +40% after news that US-based healthcare provider Bon Secours Mercy Health will acquire it for an enterprise value of $57 billion. Surgery Partners owns and operates one of the largest networks of short-stay surgical hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) in the United States.
Coinbase (COIN) is down more than -1% after Bernstein cut its price target to $250 from $330 on lower-than-expected crypto trading volumes. Other crypto stocks are mixed, with Bitcoin down -0.9% today. Iren Limited (IREN) is up +7% and Galaxy (GLXY) is up +5%, but Circle Internet (CRCL) is down more than -5%, and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is down more than -2%.
Earnings Reports (10/26/2026)
Verizon Communications Inc (VZ), Liberty Live Holdings Inc (LLYVA), Whirlpool Corp (WHR), Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc (SSD), Welltower Inc (WELL), Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR), Public Storage (PSA), Rambus Inc (RMBS), Brown & Brown Inc (BRO), Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG), Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF), Alexandria Real Estate Equitie (ARE), Brixmor Property Group Inc (BRX), Cadence Design Systems Inc (CDNS), Sun Communities Inc (SUI), Nucor Corp (NUE).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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