Avalo Therapeutics Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AVTX ) completed enrollment of the Phase 2 LOTUS trial of AVTX-009, the company’s lead drug candidate.
The global trial includes approximately 250 adults with moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa to evaluate the efficacy and safety of subcutaneous bi-weekly and monthly dosing regimens compared to placebo.
Topline data is expected in mid-2026 .
Analyst Take
Cantor hosted Avalo Therapeutics management. Cantor highlights that if the stock fails stock could sink around 85-90%.
Analyst Agarwal sees stock upside even if the HiSCR75 change is around 18%-19%, but the upside is capped as some investors may see the Phase 3 trial as a risk due to efficacy downgrade from Phase 2 to Phase 3.
HiSCR75 (Hidradenitis Suppurativa Clinical Response 75) is defined as greater than or equal to 75 % reduction in the total abscess and inflammatory nodule count from baseline, with no increase in the number of abscesses or draining tunnels.
If the change is between 20-25%, the stock could jump rally 100-150%, and if it falls, the range of 25-30%, Avalo Therapeutics’ stock could skyrocket over 200%.
Cantor analyst Prakhar Agarwal notes that the stock has underperformed when compared to the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which has jumped 2%.
Year-to-date, Avalo Therapeutics’ stock fell around 13%.
The company’s management ‘flagged superior affinity’ for AVTX009 as the biggest competitive advantage, which should lead to a stronger IL-1b inhibition for AVTX009 for a longer time.
Cantor maintains the Overweight rating for Avalo Therapeutics.
Other Analyst Ratings
AVTX has seen a positive trend in analyst ratings recently, with firms such as Guggenheim and HC Wainwright & Co. initiating coverage and reiterating a ‘Buy’ rating.
On February 2, Guggenheim initiated coverage on AVTX and set a target price of $50.00, the highest target set in the recent months, indicating a bullish outlook for the company.
Earlier, on January 15, HC Wainwright & Co. reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating, maintaining a $25.00 target that was first established in September. Mizuho also initiated coverage on AVTX in December, giving an ‘Outperform’ rating with a $39.00 target.
Meanwhile, BTIG reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on September 29, setting a target at $40.00.
Price Action: AVTX stock is up 4.57% at $15.80 at the last check on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data .
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