AMERISAFE, Inc. AMSF is benefiting from rising voluntary premiums, solid customer retention and a strong underwriting profile. With a market cap of $632 million, the company remains a leading specialty provider of workers’ compensation insurance, focusing on small- to mid-sized employers operating in hazardous industries, principally construction, trucking, logging, agriculture, oil and gas, maritime and sawmills.
AMSF stock has risen 1.3% over the past three months compared with the industry’s average gain of 14%.
Courtesy of solid prospects, AMSF currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Where Do Estimates for AMSF Stand?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMERISAFE’s 2026 earnings is pegged at $2.08 per share, which remained stable over the past 60 days. Furthermore, the consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $333.8 million for 2026, indicating a 7.5% year-over-year rise. It missed earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and met once, with an average surprise of negative 4.5%.
AMERISAFE, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
AMERISAFE, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | AMERISAFE, Inc. Quote
AMSF Stock’s Growth Drivers
AMERISAFE's growth continues to be driven by its specialized focus on high-hazard industries and disciplined underwriting approach. In the first quarter of 2026, gross premiums written increased 5.6% year over year to $88.5 million, while net premiums earned rose 9%. The company also achieved its eighth straight quarter of premium growth, supported by a strong 92.4% policy renewal retention rate and an 8.2% increase in new and renewal voluntary premiums in the quarter.
AMERISAFE is pursuing a measured growth strategy focused on expanding business without changing its underwriting standards. Investments in distribution effectiveness and customer service have helped the company attract new business while maintaining strong renewal rates.
Operational efficiency remains a key pillar of AMERISAFE's strategy. The company’s expense ratio improved to 29.7% from 29.9% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the third consecutive year-over-year quarterly improvement, as disciplined cost management and operating leverage from higher premium volumes supported profitability. Its high-touch claims handling model continues to support faster claim resolution and favorable reserve development.
A high-quality investment portfolio and around $773.6 million in cash and invested assets further strengthen its debt-free balance sheet, providing flexibility to pursue long-term profitable growth. AMSF’s return on equity stands at 15.3%, above the industry average of 13.9%, highlighting its ability to consistently generate value from its capital base. The company repurchased $5 million of stock in the first quarter of 2026. It also increased the quarterly cash dividend by 5.1% in the quarter. Its dividend yield of 4.9% is also well above the industry average of 1.8%, making the stock attractive for income-focused investors.
Risks for AMSF Stock
There are some factors, however, that investors should keep a careful eye on.
Product concentration in workers’ compensation coverage, along with weakening free cash flow, remains a concern. Free cash flow fell 61.8% in 2025 and dropped another 51.8% in the first quarter of 2026. Net investment income has also been soft, which could limit earnings momentum.
It appears overvalued and relatively expensive at its current level. AMSF's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a notable indicator, and investors may be hesitant to pay an additional premium. Currently, it holds a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.37X, surpassing the industry average of 13.65X.
Key Picks
Some better-ranked stocks in the broader finance space are Atlanticus Holdings Corporation ATLC, Pelagos Insurance Capital Ltd. PLGO and Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Atlanticus’ current-year earnings of $9.48 per share has witnessed one upward revision in the past 60 days against none in the opposite direction. ATLC’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 15.6%. The consensus estimate for current-year revenues is pegged at $3 billion, suggesting a 54.2% year-over-year jump.
The consensus estimate for Pelagos Insurance Capital’s current-year earnings is pegged at $3.78 per share, which signals 96.9% year-over-year growth. Its earnings beat estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 53.6%. The consensus mark for PLGO’s current-year revenues of $2.8 billion implies 11.4% year-over-year growth.
The consensus estimate for Cboe Global Markets’ current-year earnings is pegged at $13.35 per share, which has witnessed one upward revision in the past seven days against none in the opposite direction. Its earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 5.4%. The consensus estimate for CBOE’s current-year revenues is pegged at $2.8 billion, which implies a 13.1% year-over-year rise.
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AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF): Free Stock Analysis Report
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE): Free Stock Analysis Report
Atlanticus Holdings Corporation (ATLC): Free Stock Analysis Report
Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited (PLGO): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).