U.S. Bancorp USB is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 16, 2026, before the opening bell. The company is expected to have witnessed year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s results were supported by higher net interest income (NII) and solid fee revenue growth. However, a rise in provision was concerning.
USB has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings beat estimates in the trailing four quarters, the surprise being 5.76%, on average.
U.S. Bancorp Price and EPS Surprise
U.S. Bancorp price-eps-surprise | U.S. Bancorp Quote
USB’s Key Developments in Q2
In June 2026, U.S. Bancorp acquired BTIG, LLC. The transaction strengthens the company’s capital markets platform by adding institutional equity sales and trading, equity capital markets, equity electronic trading, and mergers and acquisitions advisory capabilities, marking a significant step in the bank’s efforts to expand its capital markets capabilities and deepen relationships with institutional clients.
The acquisition will allow U.S. Bancorp to add institutional equity sales and trading, equity capital markets, electronic trading, and mergers and acquisitions advisory to its existing offerings. This broader suite of services is expected to accelerate the bank’s capital market momentum and strengthen its ability to serve corporate and institutional clients.
Factors Influencing U.S. Bancorp’s Q2 Performance
NII: In the second quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a hike later this year. Thus, stabilizing funding and deposit costs are expected to have supported modest growth in USB’s NII in the quarter to be reported.
Management expects NII on a fully taxable equivalent basis to rise 6-7% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is pegged at $4.34 billion, indicating a 7% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
Loans: According to the Fed’s latest data, the demand for commercial and industrial and consumer loans was solid in the second quarter, while the demand for real estate loans was comparatively modest. As a result, USB’s lending activity is expected to have seen a decent improvement.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $633.7 million for average earning assets indicates a 3.3% year-over-year increase.
Non-Interest Income: Client activity and market volatility eased compared with the exceptionally strong first quarter, but both remained elevated during the second quarter. Trading conditions were shaped by evolving expectations around artificial intelligence, ongoing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Volatility was high across equities, commodities, fixed income and foreign exchange markets. This is anticipated to have aided USB’s capital markets’ revenue growth in the first quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capital markets revenues is pegged at $453.64 million, indicating a rise of 16.3% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Though mortgage rates increased in the second quarter to the mid-6% range, they were lower than the prior-year quarter’s reported level. Hence, refinancing activities and origination volume were decent. As a result, USB’s mortgage banking fees are expected to have witnessed some improvement in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $163 million, which indicates a marginal rise from the prior year quarter's reported figure.
The consensus mark for income from card revenues is pegged at $437.7 million, indicating a slight decline from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment management fees is pegged at $759.9 million, indicating an 8.1% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
Overall, the consensus estimate for total non-interest income is pegged at $3.28 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 12%. Management expects the metric to rise 6-7% year over year.
Expenses: Although the company has been implementing expense-management actions, higher costs related to compensation and employee benefits, net occupancy, and ongoing investments in technology-led initiatives are likely to have kept the expense base elevated.
Management expects total non-interest expenses to rise 3-4% year over year.
Asset Quality: USB is unlikely to have set aside a substantial amount for potential loan delinquencies, given the modest improvement in the operating environment, supported by resilient economic growth, broadly stable credit conditions and the announced ceasefire in the Middle East. However, robust lending and persistently higher inflation are likely to have weighed on provision numbers.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans is pegged at $1.57 billion, indicating a decline of 4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for USB
Per our proven model, the chances of U.S. Bancorp beating estimates this time are high. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here, as you can see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: U.S. Bancorp has an Earnings ESP of +0.34%.
Zacks Rank: USB currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings per share of $1.28 has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 15.3% from the year-ago reported number.
The consensus estimate for second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $7.6 billion, suggesting a rise of 8.7% from the year-ago reported figure.
Other Bank Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
The Earnings ESP for Webster Financial Corporation WBS is +3.46% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 21, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for WBS's quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $1.61 per share.
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS is also scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on July 22. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.50% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for NTRS have been revised upward to $2.68 per share over the past week.
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U.S. Bancorp (USB): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Webster Financial Corporation (WBS): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).