The Boston Beer Company, Inc. SAM is likely to register declines in its top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 results on July 23.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $579.3 million, implying a 1.5% decrease from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has been unchanged in the past 30 days at $4.99 per share. This implies a drop of 8.4% from the year-ago quarter’s actual.
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 11.4%. SAM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.7%, on average.
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. price-eps-surprise | The Boston Beer Company, Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Have Impacted SAM’s Q2 Results
Boston Beer’s second-quarter earnings are expected to have faced headwinds from an uncertain macroeconomic environment, with inflation and weak consumer confidence pressuring discretionary spending. This has resulted in soft demand across the beer industry, reflecting a cautious consumer and reduced social activity. Also, structural shifts in consumer behavior are adding to challenges. Trends such as moderation, growing health consciousness and the rising popularity of alternatives like cannabis-infused beverages are gradually reducing alcohol consumption. The impacts of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and increased engagement in activities have been contributing to fewer drinking occasions.
Boston Beer has been witnessing weak depletions and shipment volumes, with continued challenges in the hard seltzer category for a while. The company faces volume pressure from the ongoing weakness in key brands and soft consumer demand trends. The hard seltzer segment remains under pressure, which has been weighing on Truly Hard Seltzer as it faces declining volumes and continued loss of shelf space. Intense competition across flavored malt beverages and tea-based drinks is further straining the shelf space, as retailers streamline assortments and reduce the number of brands they carry.
On its last reported quarter’s earnings call, management projected first-half shipments to trend toward the lower end of its full-year outlook for a low-single-digit to mid-single-digit decline, followed by an improved shipment performance in the second half. The expected first-half weakness primarily reflects difficult year-ago comparisons, as SAM shipped ahead of depletions to support innovation launches and build distributor inventories. This indicates shipment and depletion trends are likely to have been soft in the second quarter.
In addition, tariffs are expected to act as deterrents, particularly through higher aluminum and imported material costs, while ongoing inflation continues to affect input expenses. Boston Beer is seeing higher advertising and promotional spending to support brand recovery and product launches. All the aforesaid factors are likely to have pressured depletions, sales and profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the flip side, Boston Beer’s focus on strategic pricing, product innovation and brand development to strengthen its market position appears encouraging. The company is expanding its presence in the Beyond Beer category, which continues to outpace the traditional beer market. Strong price realization and ongoing procurement savings are helping offset the inflationary and tariff pressures.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for SAM Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boston Beer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Boston Beer currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Valuation Picture of SAM Stock
From a valuation perspective, Boston Beer stock is trading at a premium relative to the industry benchmarks. The company has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 17.19X, above the Beverages - Alcohol industry’s average of 14.99X.
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Boston Beer shares have declined 6.4% in the year-to-date period against the industry’s growth of 12%.
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Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Fomento Economico Mexicano FMX currently has an Earnings ESP of +37.42% and sports a Zacks Rank #1. The company is likely to register growth in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $12.9 billion, which indicates a rise of 19.3% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for FMX’s quarterly earnings per share of 82 cents implies growth of 95.2% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark has moved down 10.9% in the past 30 days. FMX has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 17%, on average.
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.45% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register growth in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $2.4 billion, which indicates growth of 14.6% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Monster Beverage’s quarterly earnings per share of 59 cents implies a rise of 13.5% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The consensus mark has been unchanged in the past 30 days. MNST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.6%, on average.
Anheuser-Busch InBev BUD currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.60% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register increases in the top and bottom lines when it reports second-quarter 2026 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BUD’s quarterly EPS is pegged at $1.09, up 11.2% from the year-ago period. The consensus mark has been unchanged in the past 30 days.
The consensus estimate for BUD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $16.3 billion, which implies an increase of 8.6% from the prior-year quarter. BUD has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4.6%, on average.
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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM): Free Stock Analysis Report
Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX): Free Stock Analysis Report
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD): Free Stock Analysis Report
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).