Newmont Corporation NEM is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on July 23. The mining giant is expected to have benefited from significantly higher realized gold prices in the second quarter compared with the year-ago period. However, the pricing tailwind is likely to have been weaker than in the first quarter. Gold prices retreated from the record highs reached earlier in the year as easing trade tensions, profit-taking after a solid rally and a stronger U.S. dollar reduced safe-haven demand.
NEM’s second-quarter performance is expected to have been weighed down by lower production across certain operations, planned mine sequencing and persistent cost inflation. Higher labor, energy and consumable costs are also likely to have pressured margins. Although stronger copper and silver prices may have provided some support, these gains are expected to have been insufficient to fully offset the impact of lower output and elevated operating expenses.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter earnings was revised downward in the past 90 days. The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.07 per share, suggesting a 44.8% year-over-year rise. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues currently stands at $6.19 billion, indicating a roughly 16.4% increase from the year-ago quarter.
NEM beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in each of the last four quarters. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 33.6%, on average.
Q2 Earnings Whispers for NEM
Our proven model doesn’t predict an earnings beat for NEM this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is just not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
NEM has an Earnings ESP of -10.65% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Shaping NEM’s Q2 Results
NEM saw lower gold production for the first quarter, partly linked to its strategic divestment of non-core assets. NEM reported a roughly 16% year-over-year and 10% sequential decline in attributable gold production to 1.3 million ounces. Newmont expects second-quarter 2026 production to be below the first-quarter level. The company had produced 1.5 million attributable gold ounces in the first quarter of 2025.
Our estimate for attributable gold production stands at 1.23 million ounces for the second quarter, which indicates a 10.9% year-over-year decline.
The company anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025. NEM expects lower production from Penasquito and Cadia in 2026 due to the site transitions. It also sees lower-than-expected production from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. These will be partly offset by contributions from the newly commissioned Ahafo North mine.
Newmont is expected to have benefited from higher realized gold prices on a year-over-year basis in the to-be-reported quarter, but the pricing tailwind is likely to have been less pronounced than in the first quarter of 2026. Gold prices have retreated from the record highs reached earlier in the year amid easing geopolitical and trade tensions, a firmer U.S. dollar and profit-taking following a sharp rally, reducing safe-haven demand. Consequently, the company's average realized gold price is expected to have been lower than the record $4,900 per ounce reported in the first quarter, limiting the upside from higher gold prices in the second quarter.
Our estimate of the average realized gold price for the second quarter is $4,774 per ounce, indicating a 2.5% sequential decline.
Lower production is expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026. NEM expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — to be $1,680 per ounce on a by-product basis, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. The expected increase is due to lower sales volumes resulting from planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, deferral of sustaining capital from 2025 to 2026, and inventory changes.
Newmont also sees a significant sequential increase in unit costs in the second quarter, partly due to increased sustaining capital spending, higher costs associated with sales at Boddington, Tanami, Lihir and Penasquito and increased oil prices. The production decline and higher costs could undercut the profitability goals.
Newmont Stock’s Price Performance and Valuation
Newmont’s shares have surged 44.5% in the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 26.2% increase and the S&P 500’s rise of 21.1%. Its gold mining peers, Barrick Mining Corporation B, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM and Kinross Gold Corporation KGC have surged 60.5%, 6% and 37.4%, respectively, over the same period.
Price Performance of NEM vs. Industry, S&P 500, KGC, AEM & B
From a valuation standpoint, Newmont is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 9.09, higher than the industry. NEM is trading at a premium to Barrick and Kinross Gold and at a discount to Agnico Eagle. Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B, Barrick has a Value Score of A, while Agnico Eagle currently has a Value Score of C.
Valuation of NEM vs. Industry, KGC, AEM & B
Investment Thesis for NEM Stock
Newmont faces near-term headwinds from anticipated lower gold production, mine transitions and rising costs, which are expected to have weighed on earnings and margins in the second quarter of 2026. Production is projected to have declined due to weaker output at key operations, while higher all-in sustaining costs and softer realized gold prices sequentially could pressure profitability. Although contributions from the Ahafo North mine and elevated year-over-year gold prices might have provided some support, they are unlikely to have fully offset these challenges. These factors are expected to have limited earnings growth and could keep pressure on the stock in the near term.
Final Thoughts: Sell NEM Shares
Newmont's near-term outlook remains challenging as lower gold production, softer realized gold prices and significantly higher all-in sustaining costs are expected to weigh on earnings and margin performance. Production headwinds stemming from mine transitions, asset divestments and weaker output at several key operations are likely to persist through 2026, limiting volume growth. At the same time, easing gold prices reduce the benefit of the favorable pricing environment seen earlier this year, while rising operating and sustaining capital costs are expected to pressure profitability.
With weakening fundamentals and a relatively expensive valuation, the stock offers a less compelling risk-reward profile, and investors may be better served by considering more attractively valued alternatives in the gold mining space.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Newmont Corporation (NEM): Free Stock Analysis Report
Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC): Free Stock Analysis Report
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM): Free Stock Analysis Report
Barrick Mining Corporation (B): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).