CCEP

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Plc (CCEP)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Trading Update)
Reporting Period: Third Quarter and Nine Months ended 27 September 2024
Key Event: The report includes results adjusted for the acquisition of Coca-Cola Beverages Philippines, Inc. (CCBPI), completed on 23 February 2024, presented as if the acquisition occurred at the beginning of the period.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue and Volume Performance

Geographic Breakdown (Q3 Adjusted Comparable Revenue Growth):

• Europe: €4,040m (+1.8% FX-neutral)
• Asia Pacific (APS): €1,318m (+4.3% FX-neutral)

Dividends

Interim Dividend: €1.23 per share (payable December 2024).
Full-Year Dividend: €1.97 per share (+7.1% vs 2023).
Payout Ratio: Approximately 50% of comparable profit after tax.

Note: The filing text does not provide specific values for net profit, operating margin, free cash flow, or total debt.

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

• Acquisition Impact: Reported revenue growth of 11.5% in Q3 is significantly higher than the 2.4% adjusted comparable growth due to the inclusion of CCBPI (Philippines) revenue.
• Volume Dynamics: Adjusted comparable volume was flat (0.0%) in Q3. Underlying volume (excluding strategic de-listings) was up approximately 1%.
• Price/Mix: Revenue per unit case grew 2.4% in Q3, driven by headline price increases and favorable brand mix, offset by geographic mix.
• Market Share: YTD NARTD value share gains reported across measured channels: In-store (+40bps), Online (+20bps), and Away-from-Home (+10bps).

Outlook, Risks, and Management Commentary

Management Commentary

• Europe: Volume decline (-1.4%) attributed to mixed summer weather, softer Away-from-Home (AFH) demand, and the strategic de-listing of Capri Sun. Underlying volumes were broadly flat.
• APS: Volume growth (+3.3%) driven by solid momentum in Australia/Pacific and strong demand in the Philippines despite high comparables from the prior year.
• Sustainability: Target to use 100% renewable electricity in Australia achieved by January 2025 (one year ahead of schedule).

Risks and Contingencies

• Geopolitical: Risks related to the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East and Asia Pacific affecting supply chains and raw material availability.
• Economic: Potential recession, elevated inflation, and price elasticity impacting consumer disposable income.
• Operational: Integration risks associated with the CCBPI acquisition and joint venture with Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc. (AEV).
• Regulatory: Potential water use reductions due to national/regional regulations.

Note: The filing text does not provide specific full-year financial guidance numbers (e.g., revenue or profit targets), stating only that this report includes substantially the same information as a previous filing except for the inclusion of full-year guidance, which is not detailed in this specific text excerpt.

Investor Verification Checklist

• Adjusted Metrics: Verify the reconciliation between "As Reported" and "Adjusted Comparable" figures, as the latter includes hypothetical CCBPI integration from the start of the period.
• Underlying Volume: Confirm the "underlying" volume growth of ~1% by reviewing the specific impact of the Capri Sun de-listing in Europe.
• Full-Year Guidance: Cross-reference with the November 5, 2024 filing referenced in the text to obtain specific full-year revenue and profit guidance not explicitly detailed in this excerpt.
• Debt and Liquidity: Review the most recent Form 20-F or Half-Year Report for specific debt levels and liquidity ratios, as they are absent from this trading update.
• Dividend Approval: Confirm the final Board approval of the €1.23 interim dividend prior to the December 2024 payment date.