Trip.Com Group Ltd current report, Q1 FY2008

Business Context and Reporting Period

Company: Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (Trip.com Group Ltd)

Filing Type: Form 6-K (Press Release)

Reporting Period: Fourth Quarter and Full Year ended December 31, 2007

Business Overview: A leading travel service provider in China offering hotel accommodations, airline tickets, and packaged tours. The company targets business and leisure travelers.

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Q4 2007 (GAAP) Q4 2007 (Non-GAAP) Full Year 2007 (GAAP) Full Year 2007 (Non-GAAP)
Net Revenues RMB 356 million (US$49 million) RMB 356 million RMB 1.2 billion (US$164 million) RMB 1.2 billion
Gross Margin 81% 81% 80% 80%
Operating Income RMB 127 million (US$17 million) RMB 149 million (US$20 million) RMB 404 million (US$55 million) RMB 491 million (US$67 million)
Operating Margin 36% 42% 34% 41%
Net Income RMB 135 million (US$19 million) RMB 158 million (US$22 million) RMB 398 million (US$55 million) RMB 485 million (US$67 million)
Diluted EPS (ADS) RMB 1.96 (US$0.27) RMB 2.28 (US$0.31) RMB 5.84 (US$0.80) RMB 7.11 (US$0.97)
Cash Balance (Dec 31, 2007) RMB 1.1 billion (US$147 million)

Note: Non-GAAP figures exclude share-based compensation charges.

Material Changes vs. Prior Period

  • Revenue Growth: Q4 2007 net revenues increased 58% year-over-year (YoY). Full-year 2007 net revenues increased 54% YoY.
  • Profitability: Q4 2007 net income surged 102% YoY. Full-year 2007 net income increased 66% YoY.
  • Revenue Mix Shift:
    • Hotel Reservations: Q4 revenue up 42% YoY; accounted for 53% of total revenue in 2007 (down from 57% in 2006).
    • Air Ticketing: Q4 revenue up 78% YoY; accounted for 39% of total revenue in 2007 (up from 35% in 2006).
    • Packaged Tours: Q4 revenue up 100% YoY; accounted for 6% of total revenue in 2007 (up from 5% in 2006).
  • Expense Trends: Product development expenses rose 73% in Q4 and 67% for the full year, primarily due to increased personnel. Sales and marketing expenses rose 49% in Q4 and 41% for the full year.
  • Tax Rate: Effective tax rate for Q4 2007 was 7% (down from 14% in Q4 2006) due to preferential tax rates and deferred tax benefits under the new PRC enterprise income tax law.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

  • 2008 Guidance: The company expects year-on-year net revenue growth of approximately 35% for the full year 2008.
  • Expansion: In January 2008, the company acquired land in Nantong, China, to build a second call center to support business expansion.
  • Taxation Risk: The new PRC Enterprise Income Tax Law (25% general rate) became effective January 1, 2008. The company will apply the 25% rate until it qualifies for preferential treatment as a "high and new technology enterprise." The final effective tax rate for 2008 remains uncertain pending regulatory guidelines.
  • Management Commentary: CEO Min Fan highlighted strengthened market position, enhanced customer service, and plans to continue strengthening core competencies in technology, service, scale, and branding.
  • Risks: Forward-looking statements are subject to risks including economic slowdowns, travel industry disruptions, reliance on supplier relationships, competition, and PRC regulations governing internet content providers.

Investor Verification Checklist

  • Verify the sustainability of the 35% revenue growth guidance for 2008 given the high growth rates achieved in 2007.
  • Confirm the company's eligibility and application status for "high and new technology enterprise" status to secure preferential tax rates under the new PRC tax law.
  • Monitor the impact of the new call center construction in Nantong on capital expenditures and operating leverage.
  • Review the continued shift in revenue mix from hotels to air ticketing and its effect on gross margins.
  • Assess the magnitude of share-based compensation charges (RMB 87 million in 2007) as a recurring expense impacting GAAP profitability.