More Retail Earnings Ahead: A Closer Look

The earnings focus remains on the retail space, with several bellwether operators on deck to report results this week, including Target TGT, Best Buy BBY, Costco COST, Macy’s M, and others.

The earnings releases thus far provide a reassuring view of consumer spending, with broad spending trends largely stable and in line with what we have been seeing in recent quarters. That said, cumulative inflation remains a headwind, particularly at the lower end of income distribution. The stable aggregate spending trends reflect strength among high-income and younger consumer groups, with the bulk of the outlays going towards essentials and experiences.

Demand for discretionary spending categories such as big-ticket merchandise has remained soft in the post-COVID period, though recent results from Walmart WMT show some signs of improvement. Weakness in the discretionary spending categories explains a big part of Target’s underperformance relative to Walmart and others over the past year, though Target shares are off to a great start in 2026.

The chart below shows the one-year performance of Target (green line; down -8.7%), Best Buy (blue line; down -31.5%), Costco (purple line; down – 4.7%), Walmart (orange line; up +29.2%), and the S&P 500 index (red line; up +18.8%).

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

As noted earlier, Target shares have done exceptionally well this year, up +15.6% and outperforming Walmart’s 15% rise and the broader market’s +0.6% gain.

Target shares were down following each of the last five quarterly releases. Still, the stock’s recent momentum suggests that market participants expect management to provide a positive outlook when they report before the market’s open on Tuesday (March 3^rd).

The expectation is for Target to report $2.17 per share in earnings on $30.52 billion in revenues, representing year-over-year changes of -10% and -1.3%, respectively. Estimates had modestly inched up following the February 10^th management update but have remained unchanged since then. Comps are expected to be down -2.48%, which would follow the company’s disappointing showing on this count in the preceding period, when it reported a -2.7% comp decline vs. expectations of -1.89%.

Best Buy is expected to come out with EPS of $2.48 on $13.91 billion in revenues Tuesday morning, representing year-over-year changes of -3.9% and -0.3%, respectively. With respect to same-store sales, the expectation is a +0.14% gain, following the +2.7% gain in the last quarterly release on November 25th, relative to expectations of +1.57% comp growth.

Best Buy shares were up following the November release, as the Q3 comp growth had beaten expectations in a big way. The revisions trend has been modestly negative, reflecting the relatively soft holiday sales for the electronics category. There is likely not a whole lot of downside risk in Best Buy shares at this stage, but negative surprises on the comps front will likely put more pressure on the stock.

With respect to the Retail sector’s 2025 Q4 earnings season scorecard, we now have results from 22 of the 30 retailers in the S&P 500 index. Regular readers know that Zacks has a dedicated stand-alone economic sector for the retail space, which is unlike the placement of the space in the Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary sectors in the Standard & Poor’s standard industry classification. The Zacks Retail sector includes not only Target, Best Buy, and other traditional retailers, but also online vendors like Amazon AMZN and restaurant players.

Total Q4 earnings for these 22 retailers that have reported are up +6.9% from the same period last year on +8.6% higher revenues, with 50% beating EPS estimates and 77.3% beating revenue estimates.

The comparison charts below put the Q4 beats percentages for these retailers in a historical context.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

As you can see above, the proportion of these companies beating consensus EPS estimates is the lowest at 50% for this group of 22 retailers in the index over the preceding 5-year period. We should also note that the sector’s 50% EPS beats percentage is the lowest, along with the Auto sector, of all 16 Zacks sectors this earnings season.

With respect to the elevated earnings growth rate at this stage, we like to show the group’s performance with and without Amazon, whose results are among the 22 companies that have already reported. As we know, Amazon’s Q4 earnings were up +5.9% on +13.6% higher revenues, as it missed EPS and revenue expectations. 

The two comparison charts below show Q4 earnings and revenue growth relative to other recent periods, with Amazon’s results included (left side chart) and excluded (right side chart).

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Q4 Earnings Season Scorecard

Through Friday, February 27^th, we have seen Q4 results from 481 S&P 500 members, or 96.2% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these companies are up +15.1% from the same period last year on +9.4% higher revenues, with 74.8% beating EPS estimates and 73.4% beating revenue estimates.

We have more than 300 companies on deck to report results this week, including 12 index members. The week’s line-up includes Broadcom, along with the aforementioned retailers.  

The comparison charts below display the growth rates for the companies that have reported with what we had seen from this same group of companies in other recent periods.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The comparison charts below show the Q4 EPS and revenue beats percentages for this group of companies relative to what we had seen from them in other recent periods.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The comparison chart below shows the Q4 net margins for the 481 companies that have reported in a historical context.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Earnings Big Picture

The chart below shows the Q4 earnings and revenue growth expectations in the context of where growth has been in the preceding four quarters and what is expected in the coming four quarters.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Estimates for the current period (2026 Q1) have inched down in recent days after consistently moving higher earlier, as the chart below shows.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a calendar-year basis, with double-digit earnings growth expected in 2025 and 2026.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

For a detailed look at the overall earnings picture, including expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report >>>> Retail Sector Earnings in Focus     

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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