Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Cenovus Energy?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Cenovus Energy (CVE) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 14, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.43 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.43 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.37 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Cenovus Energy has an Earnings ESP of +16.22%. Investors should also know that CVE is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
CVE is one of just a large database of Oils and Energy stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is ConocoPhillips (COP).
ConocoPhillips is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on April 30, 2026. COP's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.83 a share 16 days from its next earnings release.
ConocoPhillips' Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +16.36% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.57.
CVE and COP's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE)?
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Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE): Free Stock Analysis Report
ConocoPhillips (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).