Citizens Financial Group, Inc. CFG is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 16, 2026, before the opening bell. The bank’s first-quarter 2026 earnings and revenues are expected to have increased from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, CFG witnessed a rise in net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, along with an increase in the loan and deposit balances. However, higher expenses acted as a major headwind.
The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. On average, the positive surprise is 2.99%.
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Citizens Financial Group, Inc. Quote
Factors to Influence CFG's Q1 Earnings
NII: In the first quarter of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Thus, stabilizing funding and deposit costs are expected to have supported modest growth in CFG’s NII in the quarter to be reported.
Management expects NII to remain stable in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 level of $1.53 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.54 billion, indicating a marginal rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Loans: The overall lending environment remained solid in the first quarter. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial and consumer loans was strong during the quarter, while real estate loan demand remained subdued. This is likely to have supported the company’s average interest-earning asset growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for average interest-earning assets is pegged at $201.1 billion, indicating a nearly 1% rise from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Non-Interest Income: The first quarter witnessed elevated mortgage rates, hovering in the 6–6.5% range, and low affordability, which created a challenging environment for the mortgage banking business. While refinance activity saw a slight improvement from the 2025 lows, purchase volumes remained under pressure due to inventory constraints. As a result, Citizens Financial’s mortgage banking fees are likely to have been affected in the quarter to be reported.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking fees is pegged at $48.6 million, indicating a 6.6% decline from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Meanwhile, the quarter witnessed heightened market volatility. Major factors that impacted the trading business in the quarter included rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns, a dominant AI theme and uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Also, volatility was high in the equity markets. Hence, Citizens Financial's trust and investment services fees are likely to have recorded improvements in the quarter to be reported. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for trust and investment services fees is pegged at $101.8 million, indicating a 3.8% increase from the previous quarter’s reported figure.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the service charge and fee revenues is pegged at $109.6 million, indicating a decline of 2.2% from the prior quarter’s reported level.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for card fees is pegged at $85.4 million, indicating a nearly 1% decline from the prior quarter’s reported figure.
Management expects fee income in the first quarter to be stable from the $620 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2025. Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $614.6 million, indicating a nearly 1% sequential decline.
Expenses: Despite ongoing efforts to control expenses and generate positive operating leverage, the opening of private banking offices and investments in new technological advancements are likely to have increased CFG’s expenses in the first quarter.
Adjusted non-interest expenses are projected to rise 2-2.5% from fourth-quarter 2025 level of $1.34 billion.
Asset Quality: CFG is less likely to have set aside a significantly higher amount for potential delinquent loans in the first quarter of 2026, given expectations of an additional rate cut this year, as signaled by the Federal Reserve.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-accrual loans is pegged at $1.49 billion, indicating a sequential decline of 1.1%.
What Our Model Unveils for CFG
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Citizen Financial this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP: Citizen Financial has an Earnings ESP of +0.42%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: CFG currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings of $1.10 per share has been unchanged in the past seven days. The figure indicates an increase of 42.9% from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for first-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $2.17 billion, indicating a rise of 12.3% from the year-ago reported figure.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are a couple of bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around.
The Earnings ESP for The PNC Financial Services Group PNC is +1.57% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The company is slated to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 15, 2026. Over the past seven days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PNC's quarterly earnings has been unchanged at $4.10 per share.
First Horizon Corporation FHN is also scheduled to announce first-quarter 2026 results on April 15, 2026. The company has an Earnings ESP of +0.21% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Quarterly earnings estimates for FHN have also remained unchanged at 49 cents per share over the past week.
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The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc (PNC): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).