Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Eli Lilly?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Eli Lilly (LLY) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on April 30, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $7.87 a share.
LLY has an Earnings ESP figure of +4.51%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $7.87 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.53. Eli Lilly is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
LLY is one of just a large database of Medical stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Inspire Medical Systems (INSP).
Inspire Medical Systems is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on May 4, 2026. INSP's Most Accurate Estimate sits at -$0.08 a share 34 days from its next earnings release.
Inspire Medical Systems' Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +76.47% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.34.
LLY and INSP's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. (INSP): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).