Oil prices moved lower after Donald Trump signaled that the ongoing Iran conflict could end soon, boosting optimism about easing supply disruptions in the region. United States Brent Oil Fund LP BNO lost about 2% premarket on April 17, 2026, at the time of writing. Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Oil Supply Concerns Persist
Oil markets could be further pressured by expectations that the United States and Iran could extend their ceasefire and possibly resume negotiations to end the conflict. However, supply-side risks remain significant.
Analysts estimate that around 13 million barrels per day of oil supply have been disrupted, largely due to halted flows through the Strait of Hormuz – a critical waterway for global energy trade, per ING, as quoted on CNBC.
ETFs to Gain
If oil prices continue to lose in the near term, the below-mentioned ETF areas are likely to gain.
Oil Refiners – VanEck Oil Refiners ETF CRAK
Companies in the refining segment benefit from lower oil prices as crude is one of their main input costs. After taking crude, refiners transform it to the finished product — gasoline. If crude prices keep falling, refiners may see a higher crack spread and their profitability may be inflated.
Retail -- SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT
Rising energy prices do not bode well for retailers as consumers’ wallets get squeezed from higher outlays on gas stations. In fact, not only oil, overall inflation rises with higher energy prices, hurting consumers’ buying power. Hence, SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) will gain in a falling oil price environment.
S&P 500 – State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY
The S&P 500 recently topped the 7,000 mark on truce hopes. Additionally, steady earnings momentum has supported the rally.
India -- iShares India 50 ETF INDY
India is almost entirely dependent on imports to back its oil needs. An oil price decline could thus be a major tailwind to India investing, putting iShares India 50 ETF (INDY) in focus.
Airlines -- U.S. Global Jets ETF JETS
The airline sector performs better in a falling crude scenario, as energy costs form a major portion of the overall cost of this sector. Hence, airlines ETF U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) is likely to outperform in the current situation.
Key Risk: Breakdown in Peace Talks
Despite the improving sentiment, ING warned that the situation remains fragile. A breakdown in negotiations between the United States and Iran could quickly reverse the current trend, as quoted on CNBC.
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State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): ETF Research Reports
State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT): ETF Research Reports
United States Brent Oil ETF (BNO): ETF Research Reports
iShares India 50 ETF (INDY): ETF Research Reports
U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS): ETF Research Reports
VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK): ETF Research Reports
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).