McDonald's Corporation MCD is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 7.
MCD’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 0.21%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MCD
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $2.75, indicating a rise of 3% from $2.67 reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $6.49 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 8.9% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
McDonald's Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
McDonald's Corporation price-eps-surprise | McDonald's Corporation Quote
Let us take a look at how things might have shaped up in the quarter to be reported.
Factors Likely to Shape MCD’s Quarterly Results
McDonald’s first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from continued traction in value offerings, marketing initiatives and menu innovation. The company’s focus on going “3 for 3” — value, marketing and menu — is expected to have supported customer engagement and traffic trends in the to-be-reported quarter.
In the United States, McValue and the relaunch of Extra Value Meals are likely to have aided first-quarter performance. Management noted that McValue remains the foundation of its 2026 value strategy, while Extra Value Meals continued to support value and affordability perceptions. Momentum from nationally price-pointed offerings, including the $5 Sausage McMuffin with Egg meal and the $8 two-Snack Wrap meal in January, is expected to have supported traffic in the to-be-reported quarter.
Menu innovation is likely to have contributed to first-quarter top-line growth. McDonald’s continued to emphasize growth opportunities across beef, beverages and chicken. The company highlighted progress on Best Burger, beverage innovation under the McCafe brand and continued chicken category expansion. These initiatives, along with ongoing marketing efforts, are likely to have supported customer visits and broader brand engagement in the quarter under review.
Digital and loyalty initiatives are expected to have remained key growth drivers. McDonald’s loyalty platform continues to gain scale, and management noted that loyalty members visit more frequently and spend more over time. Continued adoption of digital tools, including Ready on Arrival, is likely to have supported service speed, customer satisfaction and transaction frequency in the first quarter.
International markets are likely to have remained supportive, albeit with some moderation. Management cited solid January momentum in International Operated Markets, backed by value, menu and marketing execution. However, growth is likely to have decelerated sequentially due to weather-related pressures across several European markets. Our model predicts first-quarter revenues from total international-operated markets to rise 5.8% year over year to $3 billion.
However, weather disruption is expected to have hurt first-quarter sales. Management stated that severe weather in the United States beginning in late January pressured industry traffic, affected McDonald’s traffic and led several restaurants to close or reduce hours. The company estimated the weather impact at about 100 basis points for the full quarter.
Persistent pressure on lower-income consumers is also likely to have remained a headwind. Although McDonald’s value strategy is designed to defend traffic and affordability perceptions, a challenging QSR backdrop and cautious consumer spending may have weighed on traffic trends. On the margin front, ongoing investments in technology, digital and Global Business Services, along with higher interest expense expectations, are likely to have partly offset benefits from sales leverage and scale efficiencies. Our model predicts first-quarter total operating costs and expenses to rise 6% year over year to $3.5 billion.
What Our Model Says About MCD Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for McDonald’s this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MCD: McDonald’s has an Earnings ESP of -0.44%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
McDonald’s Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are a few stocks from the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.61% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
In the to-be-reported quarter, CAVA’s earnings are expected to decline 22.7% year over year. CAVA’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 26.5%.
Shake Shack Inc. SHAK currently has an Earnings ESP of +19.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Shake Shack’s earnings are expected to register a 21.4% year-over-year decline. Shake Shack’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 6.3%.
Sweetgreen, Inc. SG has an Earnings ESP of +6.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
In the to-be-reported quarter, Sweetgreen’s earnings are expected to register a 9.5% year-over-year decline. Sweetgreen’s earnings matched estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other three, with an average miss of 38%.
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McDonald's Corporation (MCD): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).