It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Tractor Supply (TSCO). Shares have lost about 18.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Tractor Supply due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Tractor Supply's Q1 Earnings Miss, Higher Comparable Sales Aid
Tractor Supply reported first-quarter 2026 results, wherein the bottom and top lines missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. While net sales increased from the year-ago period, earnings declined. It posted earnings of 31 cents per share, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents. The bottom line dipped 7.2% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
Net sales grew 3.6% year over year to $3.59 billion but came below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.64 billion. The rise in sales can be attributed to store openings and, to a lesser extent, higher comparable store sales (comps). Comps edged up 0.5% year over year compared with the 0.9% drop registered in the prior-year’s first quarter. The improvement reflects a 1.6% rise in comparable average ticket, partly offset by a 1% dip in the comparable average transaction count.
Four out of the five product categories posted positive comps in the reported quarter, complemented by strength in big-ticket items. Companion animal performance was below the company’s average, indicating weak demand trends, category shifts and an unfavorable product mix. The company reported solid double-digit growth in digital sales.
Tractor Supply’s Costs & Margins
Gross profit rose 3.6% year over year to $1.30 billion. The gross margin remained flat year over year at 36.2%, as effective product cost management and solid execution of an everyday low-price strategy were mitigated by elevated tariffs and delivery-related transportation costs. Our model predicted gross profit to increase 8.5% and the gross margin to expand 70 basis points (bps) to 35.9%.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, including depreciation and amortization, rose 6.1% to $1.07 billion from $1.01 billion in the first quarter of 2025. As a percentage of net sales, SG&A increased 70 bps to 29.7% from 29% in the year-ago quarter. This increase was owing to deleveraged fixed costs based on comps performance and an accelerated new store opening cadence, somewhat offset by a focus on productivity and cost control. Our model predicted SG&A expenses to increase 7.4% and, as a percentage of sales, this metric was anticipated to expand 50 bps to 26.1%.
Operating income for the quarter fell 6.3% year over year to $233.4 million. Meanwhile, the operating margin contracted 70 bps to 6.5%. We estimated operating income to drop 6.1% and the operating margin to fall 40 bps 6.8%.
TSCO’s Financial Position
Tractor Supply ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $224.3 million, long-term debt of $2.13 billion and total stockholders’ equity of $2.51 billion. In first-quarter 2026, net cash provided by operating activities was $91.1 million. In the same period, the company incurred capital expenditures of $202.6 million.
During first-quarter 2026, Tractor Supply returned $244.4 million to shareholders. This included the repurchase of 2.3 million shares of its common stock for $118 million and the payment of $244.4 million in quarterly cash dividends.
In the reported quarter, the company continued to expand its footprint by opening 40 Tractor Supply outlets, while closing one Petsense by Tractor Supply store.
Sneak Peek Into TSCO’s Outlook
Management reiterated guidance for 2026. The company still expects net sales growth of 4-6% and comps growth of 1-3%.
For 2026, the operating margin rate is projected between 9.3% and 9.6%. Net income is expected to be between $1.11 billion and $1.17 billion, with earnings per share anticipated to be $2.13-$2.23.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.
VGM Scores
At this time, Tractor Supply has a average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Interestingly, Tractor Supply has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).