Methanex (MEOH) Down 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Methanex (MEOH). Shares have lost about 8.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Methanex due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent drivers for Methanex Corporation before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Methanex’s Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Y/Y Methanol Pricing

Methanex reported adjusted earnings of 30 cents per share for the first quarter of 2026, down 76.9% from $1.30 in the year-ago quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents by 36.2%. 

The profitability was pressured by weaker year-over-year methanol pricing and higher total cash costs, even as higher sales volume provided a meaningful offset. Methanex posted a net loss attributable to shareholders of $14 million, or 18 cents per share, primarily due to mark-to-market expense from share-based compensation linked to the company’s higher share price during the quarter. 

Quarterly revenues rose 8.7% year over year to $974 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $963.9 million by 1%. 

Operational Highlights

Methanex produced 2,391,000 tons of methanol in the first quarter, up from 1,619,000 tons a year ago. Management attributed the strong output to safe and reliable operations across the global portfolio, including contributions from the acquired Beaumont, TX assets, while noting that early-quarter production was briefly reduced in North America in response to high natural gas prices. The figure beat our estimate of 2,171,000 tons. 

Total methanol sales volume was 2,622,000 tons in the quarter versus 2,217,000 tons a year ago. The figure missed our estimate of 2,690,000 tons. 

The average realized price was $351 per ton, below $404 per ton in the year-ago quarter, reflecting a less favorable pricing environment year over year despite improvement from the prior quarter. The figure was above our estimate of $338. 

Financials

Methanex ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $379 million compared with $425.3 million at the end of the prior quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $132 million in the first quarter, reflecting working-capital headwinds as accounts receivable rose alongside higher pricing and inventory levels. 

Shareholder returns remained in place, with $14 million paid through regular dividends during the quarter. Methanex also repaid $60 million of Term Loan A as part of its stated priority to de-lever, and it reiterated access to a $600 million revolving credit facility to support liquidity. 

Outlook

Methanex reiterated its expectation for 2026 production to be 9 million tons of methanol (Methanex interest) and 0.3 million tons of ammonia, with quarterly variability tied to gas availability, planned turnarounds and unplanned outages. Management also noted that global supply and demand dynamics remain fluid, particularly given uncertainty around production and logistics in the Middle East. 

With posted prices surging into April and May, Methanex expects significantly higher adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter on a higher realized price and similar sales of produced methanol. Management expects its average realized price to be approximately $500 to $525 per ton across those two months based on posted prices and discounts, setting up a materially stronger near-term pricing environment. The supply-chain disruption tied to the Middle East conflict is a key factor behind the rapid escalation in methanol pricing moving into the second quarter. 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 66.67% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Methanex has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Methanex has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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