Citigroup (C), one of the largest global investment banks, has sent a strong signal of confidence in Nebius Group by raising its price target to a new Street-high of $287 from $169, while keeping its “Buy” rating. This bold move comes just days after the company reported standout first-quarter 2026 results of $399 million, a huge 684% jump year-over-year (YOY).
Building on this momentum, hedge fund Situational Awareness, founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, recently disclosed a significant 5.6% passive stake in Nebius, consisting of approximately 12.41 million Class A shares. This position, valued at roughly $2.6 billion, is the fund’s largest single holding.
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Nebius shares have reacted strongly, gaining 73.97% over the past month as the market takes in both the Citi upgrade and this high-profile institutional backing. With rapid revenue growth and a growing backlog of hyperscaler contracts, NBIS is trading as one of the clearest high-growth stories in the AI infrastructure space.
Is Citi’s $287 target a realistic next step for more upside, or does it reflect expectations that are already running hot?
Nebius’s Strong Q1 Growth
Nebius is a Netherlands-based technology company focused on AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and data services. It builds high-performance compute capacity for enterprise and research clients running advanced machine learning workloads across global markets.
Their shares have gains of 221% year-to-date (YTD) and 631.32% over the past 52 weeks.
www.barchart.com At a $58.47 billion valuation, the stock trades at 65.18 times sales versus a 3.97 times sector median and 8.17 times book versus 4.45 times, reflecting steep AI-driven expectations.
Their latest quarterly report, released in May 2026 for results through March 31, showed revenue of $399 million, up 75% from the previous quarter and up 684% YOY. This surge highlights how quickly demand for its infrastructure and capacity is ramping up.
It also delivered adjusted EBITDA of $129.5 million, pointing to improving operating leverage. Their earnings surprises are trending positive, with the March quarter posting -$0.23 versus -$0.81 expected, a 71.60% surprise.
The report showed net income from continuing operations of $621.2 million, while adjusted net loss narrowed to $100.3 million, representing a 20% improvement. That margin profile is strengthening, with the AI business adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 45% from 24% in the prior quarter.
NBIS also posted operating cash flow of $2.26 billion, rising 486.80%, alongside net cash flow of $5.91 billion, up 364.51%. Nebius increased its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $20 billion - $25 billion, up from $16 billion - $20 billion, signaling a very aggressive infrastructure buildout.
Nebius’s AI Footprint
Nebius has been busy stacking real, tangible growth drivers. The company recently struck a deal with Bloom Energy (BE) to use Bloom’s solid oxide fuel cell technology to power its AI infrastructure build‑out, with the first project set to deliver 328 MW of behind‑the‑meter capacity. This setup is expected to go live this year and will replace the need for gas turbines at the site.
Another key piece is the expansion of its ecosystem through TD SYNNEX. The distributor is rolling out dedicated Nvidia (NVDL), HGX B300 clusters on Nebius AI Cloud. This is the first time a global IT distributor has locked in an AI factory‑grade Nvidia cluster from an AI‑focused cloud provider. Nebius runs the infrastructure while TD SYNNEX handles commercialization and go‑to‑market, which effectively makes Nebius a core supplier to a wide base of IT partners.
On top of that, Nebius is scaling its own capacity with a big footprint in Finland. The company plans to build a new AI factory in Lappeenranta with up to 310 MW of capacity, after expanding its Mäntsälä data center to 75 MW earlier this year. The Lappeenranta site covers roughly 100 acres and is expected to start delivering capacity to customers in 2027, supporting Nebius’s goal of securing more than 3 GW of contracted power by the end of 2026.
Put together, these moves help explain why interest from institutions and analysts keeps building.
Analyst Sentiment Tilts Bullish
Nebius has another key catalyst on the horizon, with its next earnings release scheduled for August 6, for the June 2026 quarter. The current average earnings estimate for that quarter sits at -$0.69 per share, compared with -$0.38 in the same quarter a year earlier. That points to a projected YOY growth rate of -81.58%.
This earnings backdrop has not scared off high‑profile tech strategists. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently named NBIS his top AI infrastructure pick for 2026, citing the company’s positioning and technology as key strengths in the push to build out next‑generation capacity. He also argued that Nebius looks like a likely acquisition target for a major hyperscaler.
The broader analyst community is leaning constructive as well, even if they are a bit more cautious. NBIS’s coverage from 15 analysts currently aggregates to a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Their average price target stands at $224.00, which actually implies 15.35% downside from the recent share price instead of near‑term upside.
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www.barchart.com Conclusion
Nebius now sits in a rare spot where the story, the numbers, and the big‑money interest are all moving in the same direction. Citi’s $287 target, the growing AI factory footprint, and new hedge fund involvement suggest the market still sees room for the stock to climb rather than peak. Bumps around earnings are still likely, but the overall picture points to NBIS working its way higher over time.
On the date of publication, Ebube Jones did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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