The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.87%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.97%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.77%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are up +1.01%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are up +0.89%.
Stock indexes are trading higher today, supported by today’s decline of more than -3% in oil prices. The stock and bond markets took today’s CPI report largely in stride. The Aug core CPI of +0.3% m/m was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.2%, but the nominal CPI of +0.4% m/m was in line with market expectations. T-note prices are trading mildly higher, even though the markets raised the odds of a FOMC rate hike next week to 88% from 75% on Thursday.
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Today’s Aug US CPI report of +0.4% m/m was in line with market expectations, but the core CPI report of +0.3% m/m was slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.2% m/m. On a year-on-year basis, the Aug CPI report of +3.4% y/y was unchanged from July and was in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the Aug core CPI report of +2.4% y/y eased slightly from July’s +2.5% and posted a new 5.5-year low, and was in line with market expectations.
Today’s CPI report caused the markets to raise the odds for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at next week’s meeting on September 15-16 to 88% from 75% on Thursday.
The US-Canada trade war continues to weigh on stock market sentiment. On Tuesday, Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of US goods in retaliation for the US action last month to impose 50% tariffs on $20 billion of imports from Canada. The US responded by blocking imports of some Canadian products and slapping new tariffs on others, as well as seeking to bar Canadian companies from selling to US government contractors.
Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are down more than -3% today, giving back part of Thursday’s +6.7% surge to a 3.5-month high. Oil prices are still sharply higher on the week, but fell back today after the International Energy Agency today warned that high oil prices and restricted oil supply will cause the biggest drop in global oil demand this year since the Covid-19 pandemic.
There were reports that two ships were struck by unidentified projectiles near Oman on Thursday, presumably by Iran. Also, Axios reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Trump twice on Thursday, asking him to launch a new military attack against the Houthis in Yemen, who are gaining control of more territory in Yemen near the critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait and have been striking Saudi oil facilities. Saudi Arabia told OPEC on Thursday that its crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest since 1990.
Overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.81%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -1.18%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed down -1.91%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are up +4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4.1 bp to 4.922%, following Thursday’s +11 bp surge to a 2.75-year high of 4.963%. T-note prices shook off the CPI report and the higher odds of an FOMC rate hike next week and are trading higher on today’s decline in oil prices. The 10-year break-even inflation expectations rate is down -2.6 bp to 2.390%, falling back from Thursday’s 3.25-month high of 2.42%.
European government bond yields are steady to lower. The 10-year German bund yield today posted a new 24-year high of 3.532% but then backed off and is little changed at 3.502%. The 10-year UK gilt yield edged to a 19-year high of 5.380% but then backed off and is down -4.4 bp at 5.329%.
Markets are discounting a 78% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29. The ECB at this week’s meeting raised its deposit facility rate by 25 bp to 2.50%, as expected, and said inflation will stay above 2% for an "extended period."
US Stock Movers
Oracle (ORCL) is up more than +2% after reporting late Thursday that its cloud infrastructure sales rose +121% to $7.4 billion, above the market consensus of $7.2 billion. Oracle’s co-CEO Clay Magouyrk said, “We are delivering data center and GPU capacity at a pace that would have seemed impossible only a year ago.” The company also said it sold more than $30 billion in AI cloud contracts during the latest quarter, higher than expectations. Fiscal-Q1 sales rose +30% and the adjusted EPS report of $1.92 per share was higher than market expectations of $1.75.
The positive Oracle news boosted other cloud infrastructure stocks, with Applied Digital (APLD) up +2%, and Coreweave (CRWV) up +1%.
Chipmakers are higher across the board on the positive Oracle news, with Qualcomm (QCOM) and Intel (INTC) up more than +3%.
The Magnificent Seven are all trading higher today, led by gains of more than +1% in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta (META). Apple is seeing continued support after releasing its new iPhone Duo earlier this week, its first foldable phone.
Adobe (ADBE) is down 0.4% after providing slightly disappointing guidance, which fueled concerns that AI will cannibalize software revenue.
Dell Technologies (DELL) is up more than +8% after RBC Capital Markets started research coverage with an outperform rating and $640 price target based on expectations for strong AI infrastructure demand.
Earnings Reports (9/11/2026)
Kroger Co (KR) and Rent the Runway Inc (RENT).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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