Citi’s senior analyst Geoff Meacham says investors should reduce exposure to Moderna (MRNA) before the biotech stock comes crashing down in the final quarter of 2026.
Meacham downgraded MRNA this morning to “Sell” and raised his price objective to $80, which nonetheless suggests potential downside of an alarming 60% from current levels.
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Note that Moderna shares have been on a tear in 2026, currently trading at more than 6x their price at the start of this year.
www.barchart.comWhy Citi Recommends Unloading Moderna Stock
MRNA’s explosive run is primarily related to positive late-stage clinical trial results for intismeran autogene, its candidate personalized cancer vaccine.
Still, Citi recommends taking profit as it “struggles to justify the valuation through public-company comparisons or pipeline [net present value].”
Moderna’s market cap is approaching $80 billion, which puts it in the same league as Regeneron (REGN), despite significantly “lower expected revenue and earnings,” he added.
Even if intismeran’s lead oncology programs are assigned a 100% probability of success, the biotech stock should be worth ~$100/sh, the analyst told clients.
MRNA Shares May Be Overbought at Current Levels
According to Geoff Meacham, for MRNA stock to justify ~$200/sh valuation, intismeran autogene must bring in about $13 billion in annual oncology sales to Moderna.
That estimate beats his current model by about 7x.
All in all, “based on aggressive implied sales and unrealistic PoS assumptions, MRNA’s current valuation is unjustifiable with a negatively skewed risk/reward profile,” he wrote.
Note that insiders have predominantly unloaded Moderna this year, which reinforces that even management likely sees the biotech stock as vastly overvalued at current levels.
MRNA’s relative strength index (RSI) sits in the late 60s as well, indicating it’s now approaching overbought conditions.
How Wall Street Recommends Playing Moderna
Other Wall Street analysts also agree that MRNA shares’ recent rally has indeed gone a bit too far.
The consensus rating on Moderna sits at “Hold” only, with the mean price target of about $122 indicating potential downside of more than 35% from here.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Wajeeh Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.