U.S. electric vehicle (EV) companies have released their Q3 2026 production and delivery numbers. The year-over-year (YoY) comparisons were always going to be tough, as the EV tax credit ended in September last year, and buyers rushed to buy vehicles in the third quarter of 2025.
Tesla’s (TSLA) deliveries fell 2.1% from the corresponding quarter last year. It was nonetheless a stellar performance from the Elon Musk-run company, and the number was well ahead of Street estimates. Incidentally, the comps were particularly tough for Tesla as it delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in Q3 2025. Lucid Group’s (LCID) Q3 deliveries fell 6.7% even though the startup EV company sold more cars than it produced, as it aligned production with demand, which is quite weak.
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Rivian’s Q3 Deliveries Rose to a Record High
Rivian (RIVN) stood out, with deliveries rising 45.8% YoY to 19,248, which easily surpassed consensus estimates. The company also maintained its 2026 delivery guidance of 65,000-70,000 units. In a world where U.S. market leader Tesla has stopped providing delivery guidance, and Lucid suspended its guidance, Rivian maintaining its annual guidance wasn’t a mean feat. However, markets saw Rivian maintaining guidance despite the Q3 beat as a sign of a slowdown in the final quarter of the year. The stock fell following the release and has since been falling, extending its year-to-date decline to over 27%.
www.barchart.comMeanwhile, Rivian’s guidance implies Q4 deliveries of 24,726 to 29,726 units, a new record high. To be sure, the term “record high” can be misleading for a growth company like Rivian given the low base and the ramp-up of its affordable R2 platform. However, incremental volume growth is crucial as Rivian needs to increase deliveries considerably for better fixed cost absorption.
What’s Driving Down Rivian Stock?
While Rivian not raising its annual guidance might have spooked a section of the market, the bigger worry for loss-making growth names like RIVN is the soaring bond yields. Since the earnings of growth names are stretched far into the future, their valuations take a beating amid rising interest rates, and by extension, higher discounting rates. We saw something similar when the Fed embarked on its previous rate hike cycle in 2022. While this tightening cycle might not be as steep as the last, higher rates still reduce the appeal of growth names, especially if they are loss-making.
How to Play RIVN Stock?
In my previous article, I noted that Rivian’s risk-reward wasn’t attractive enough. The stock has since plunged further, and the forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple has corrected to 2.15x. To its credit, Rivian is among the rare investment-worthy startup EV companies given its quality product portfolio and credible management, which has impressed with execution in what has been a terrible time to be in the EV industry. It has managed cash burn much better compared to most other startup EV players. Also, the company has a diversified funding mix and has secured funding from Volkswagen (VWAGY) and Uber Technologies (UBER), apart from the $4.5 billion funding commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy.
Rivian’s partnership with Volkswagen has, in fact, helped buoy the company’s earnings, and 60% of its high-margin software and services revenues in Q2 came from the joint venture with the German auto giant.
On the flip side, Rivian’s margins might compress in the near term as it ramps up R2 production. Also, Rivian’s regulatory credit sales are taking a beating after President Donald Trump’s administration ended penalty enforcement for Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, and legacy automakers don’t need to necessarily buy these credits from EV names like Rivian.
All said, I believe Rivian’s risk-reward has improved slightly since the time I last covered the stock. However, I still don’t see Rivian as a compelling buy at these levels and would wait for a better entry point to add to my holdings.
On the date of publication, Mohit Oberoi had a position in: RIVN , TSLA . All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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