Anthropic (ANT) hasn't made its stock market debut yet, but investors are already getting a taste of what could be a volatile ride.
The artificial intelligence (AI) company behind Claude is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO) that could raise as much as $100 billion. But with the expected listing less than two weeks away, there's growing resistance to the company's ambitious valuation. Moreover, investors are already betting on Anthropic's future through the Hyperliquid trading platform, where a contract tied to the company's valuation has dropped roughly 30% from its September high.
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While that doesn’t necessarily mean Anthropic's IPO is in trouble, it reinforces an argument I've made before: Investors interested in owning Anthropic stock might be better off waiting until the initial excitement settles down, because the first few days and weeks after Anthropic goes public will be very bumpy.
Anthropic's Valuation Is Already Under Pressure
Anthropic is reportedly targeting a valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion for its upcoming IPO, which would make it one of the world's most valuable publicly traded companies.
But some prospective institutional investors aren't convinced. According to recent reports, investors have pushed for a valuation between $1 trillion and $1.3 trillion. That's potentially hundreds of billions of dollars below what Anthropic hopes to achieve.
Meanwhile, traders on Hyperliquid’s decentralized cryptocurrency trading platform have been making their own judgments about Anthropic's value.
Hyperliquid offers derivatives contracts, allowing investors to speculate on the prices of assets without actually owning them. One of those contracts tracks Anthropic's implied valuation. Its price neared $2,400 in September, representing a company valuation of about $2.4 trillion. But it subsequently fell to approximately $1,520 on Nov. 6 before recovering to around $1,697. That's a decline of nearly 30% from the September peak.
Of course, these contracts aren't Anthropic shares, and the trading activity doesn't establish the company's actual valuation. It’s also notable that despite the drop in contract prices, some traders are still expecting a valuation of nearly $1.7 trillion, which would be above Anthropic’s reported IPO target.
But the retreat from September's highs also suggests that traders are losing their enthusiasm for Anthropic.
Anthropic's Growth Comes at an Enormous Cost
Whatever the price when Anthropic finally goes public, there’s no questioning that the AI startup will instantly be one of the biggest publicly traded companies in the world. That's with good reason — Anthropic posted revenue of $33.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026, compared to $2.5 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. Revenue in Q3 alone was $17 billion, up more than 1,100% from a year ago.
But Anthropic is also spending enormous amounts of money to build the computing infrastructure necessary to support its AI models. In a recent regulatory filing, the company disclosed approximately $895.4 billion in computing and infrastructure commitments, with spending obligations extending years into the future. About $447.5 billion is expected to be incurred by the end of 2030, with most of the rest extending through 2045.
Anthropic also reported a net loss of $104 billion through the first three quarters of the year, although that figure included a $94.3 billion non-cash accounting charge. Its operating loss was considerably smaller at $1.26 billion.
At a $1.5 trillion market capitalization, Anthropic would trade at approximately 34 times annualized revenue. That's an enormous premium, even for a company growing as quickly as Anthropic. Investors buying at that valuation would be paying for years of continued expansion while accepting substantial uncertainty about the company's eventual profitability.
Why I'm Still Cautious About Anthropic's IPO
This has been a year for Big Tech IPOs. SpaceX (SPCX) led the way in June 2026 with the largest IPO on record, and now Anthropic could potentially top it.
But I also think that SpaceX offers a cautionary signal for prospective investors in Anthropic. The SpaceX IPO was priced at $135 per share and opened at $150; shares shot past $200 in a matter of days before the stock's inevitable collapse. Today, SpaceX stock trades at roughly $140, and if you were an investor who bought at the high-water mark, you’re looking at a substantial paper loss.
Anthropic could experience something similar. The company has an attractive growth story, a recognizable product, and a prominent position in the artificial intelligence industry. Those characteristics could generate tremendous demand for its shares.
But the disagreement over its valuation suggests investors aren't necessarily willing to pay whatever price Anthropic asks. And that's before the stock begins trading publicly, when ordinary investors will have their first opportunity to buy shares.
I remain interested in Anthropic as a long-term investment. Its revenue growth and position in the AI market make it a company worth watching. But I'm not interested in chasing an IPO simply because the company has an exciting story.
On the date of publication, Patrick Sanders did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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