FedEx Corporation FDX is set to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on June 23, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share and revenues is pegged at $5.91 and $24.18 billion, respectively.
The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 1.9% in the past 60 days. The mark has declined 2.6% from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues indicates a 8.8% upward movement from the year-ago actual.
For fiscal 2026, earnings per share have been revised upward by 0.9% to $19.78 in the past 60 days. The mark has improved 8.7% from the year-ago actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for full-year fiscal 2026 revenues indicates a 6.6% upward movement from the year-ago actual.
FDX has an impressive earnings surprise history, as reflected in the chart below.
Given this backdrop, let's examine the factors that might have influenced FDX’s fiscal fourth-quarter results.
We expect FedEx’s bottom-line results in the upcoming earnings to have benefited from cost-saving measures implemented under its DRIVE program. These initiatives include lowering flight frequencies, grounding aircraft and reducing workforce levels.
Efforts to cut costs, particularly through lower line-haul expenses and improved productivity, are likely to have supported margins during the fiscal fourth quarter. Additionally, the use of artificial intelligence to optimize routing, enhance capacity planning and strengthen digital capabilities is expected to have contributed to profitability by reducing operating costs.
The company’s emphasis on expanding premium B2B and B2C volumes, especially within the healthcare sector, is likely to have boosted yields. However, persistent economic uncertainty is expected to have weighed on FedEx’s performance in the quarter under review.
Management is likely to provide a detailed update during the conference call regarding the spin-off of FedEx Freight, which was completed on June 1, 2026. We also anticipate commentary on FedEx’s multi-year agreement with Amazon AMZN, signed last year, under which the former handles deliveries of selected oversized packages for the e-commerce giant. The agreement was reached shortly after FedEx’s competitor, United Parcel Service UPS, announced plans to reduce the volume of packages it delivers for Amazon.
Q4 Earnings Whispers for FDX
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for FDX this time. A company with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has a higher chance of beating estimates, which is exactly the case here.
Earnings ESP: FedEx has an Earnings ESP of +3.76% (the Most Accurate Estimate of $6.13 is pegged at 22 cents above the Zacks Consensus Estimate). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
FDX Stock Outperforms the Industry & UPS in Fiscal Q4
Driven by the cost-reduction efforts, shares of FDX have gained in the single digits in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (March-May), outperforming the Zacks Transportation-Air Freight and Cargo industry and rival United Parcel Service.
Q4 Price Comparison
FDX Trading Cheap
Based on forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S), FDX’s shares are trading at a discount compared with the industry average as well as United Parcel Service. FDX currently has a Value Score of B.
FDX’s P/S F12M Vs. Industry & UPS
Investment Thesis for FDX Stock
Tariff-related uncertainty and still-high inflation have been hurting consumer sentiment and growth expectations. FDX continues to struggle due to the normalization of volume and pricing trends in the post-COVID scenario.
The company’s efforts to reward its shareholders are likely to have supported the share price. FDX is also active on the buyback front.
End Note
It is worth noting that the company has the brand and the network to continue generating steady cash flows in the long run. This makes FDX a compelling long-term player in the transportation space. However, the near-term headwinds, including the tariff-induced uncertainties, are hard to ignore.
So, all in all, it is worth holding on to FDX stock for now. Betting on the stock ahead of its upcoming results does not seem like a good idea. It is better to wait for management’s commentary on volumes and cost-cutting efforts, apart from the fiscal 2027 guidance, to get more clarity.
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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).