CREDIT ACCEPTANCE CORP quarterly report, Q2 FY2017

Credit Acceptance Corporation — Q2 2017 Form 10-Q

Reporting period: Three and six months ended June 30, 2017. Credit Acceptance provides financing programs through auto dealers, primarily for consumers with impaired or limited credit histories; 95.3% of second-quarter loan assignments were to consumers with FICO scores below 650 or no score.

Financial results and position

MetricQ2 2017Q2 2016Six months 2017Six months 2016
Revenue$276.0 million$238.5 million$538.8 million$466.4 million
Net income$99.1 million$84.9 million$192.4 million$159.3 million
Diluted EPS$5.09$4.17$9.81$7.80
Net income margin35.9%35.6%35.7%34.2%

For the first six months, operating cash flow was $261.0 million, investing cash outflow was $534.7 million, and financing cash inflow was $286.3 million. Cash and cash equivalents ended at $27.2 million; restricted cash was $313.9 million.

At June 30, loans receivable, net, were $4.284 billion, up from $3.887 billion at year-end 2016. The allowance for credit losses was $354.1 million. Total debt carrying value was $3.014 billion ($3.035 billion principal), versus $2.604 billion carrying value at December 31, 2016. Shareholders’ equity was $1.248 billion. Management reported funded debt to equity of 2.4 to 1 and $1.020 billion of unused and available credit lines; availability may depend on collateral and borrowing-base limits.

Changes and operating drivers

  • Q2 revenue rose 15.7% and net income rose 16.7% year over year; first-half revenue rose 15.5% and net income 20.8%. Management attributed earnings growth primarily to a larger average loan portfolio.
  • Finance charges increased 17.0% in Q2 and 17.2% for the half, principally from higher average receivables, partly offset by lower portfolio yields (23.9% versus 25.0% in Q2; 23.9% versus 25.1% for the half).
  • Interest expense increased 23.0% in Q2 and 23.9% for the half, reflecting higher average debt balances and slightly higher average borrowing costs. Operating expenses rose 11.9% in Q2 and 11.1% for the half, including higher servicing, sales-force and legal costs.
  • Q2 assignment volume increased 1.0% by units and 7.1% by dollars; first-half unit volume declined 3.3%. In Q2, active dealers grew 6.3%, but average volume per active dealer fell 5.6%. Management said competition, dealer attrition and lower per-dealer volume have made unit growth more difficult.
  • The Purchase Program represented 27.7% of Q2 unit assignments, up from 22.2% a year earlier. Purchased Loans absorb collection shortfalls more directly than Dealer Loans, which may be partly offset by lower Dealer Holdback.

Outlook, risks and unusual items

  • The filing provides no specific earnings or revenue guidance. Management believes operating cash flows and financing alternatives should fund maturities and future operations, but warns that constrained capital-market access could materially harm liquidity and operations.
  • Loan performance forecasts improved for 2017 assignments and remained materially above initial estimates for 2009–2013 cohorts; 2015 assignments remained materially below initial estimates. Forecasts for newer loans are less certain because less expected collection activity has been realized. Management identifies accurate collection forecasting as critical.
  • Credit-loss provision was $21.8 million in Q2 and $42.3 million for the half, even though aggregate performance exceeded beginning-of-period expectations; certain individual loan pools underperformed. The allowance increased to $354.1 million from $320.4 million at year-end.
  • Debt increased to support loan growth and share repurchases. The company repurchased 610,260 shares for $123.5 million in the first half; $776.2 thousand? The remaining authorization was 776,208 shares as of June 30.
  • Regulatory and legal matters include a newly disclosed CFPB inquiry into possible Equal Credit Opportunity Act/Regulation B issues, plus FTC, Maryland, New York, DOJ and Massachusetts inquiries and a competitor lawsuit. The company is cooperating or defending as applicable and cannot estimate reasonably possible losses for these matters.
  • Management reported compliance with debt covenants. A July 2017 subsequent event extended Warehouse Facility VI’s revolving period to September 2020. Adoption of the expected-credit-loss standard (CECL) was preliminarily expected to have a material financial-statement impact; the filing gives no quantified estimate.
  • Accounting adoption of share-based payment guidance reduced first-half income-tax provision by $2.5 million. The effective tax rate was 36.1%, compared with 37.1% a year earlier.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • Whether recent loan cohorts—especially 2015 and newer assignments—continue to perform in line with collection forecasts, and how forecast changes affect provisions and yields.
  • Whether dealer attrition and declining average volume per dealer persist, and whether assignment growth is achieved without weaker pricing or underwriting economics.
  • Debt maturity, collateral and borrowing-base capacity, refinancing access, and the availability of reported unused credit lines.
  • Developments and potential financial consequences of the CFPB inquiry and other regulatory matters and litigation; loss estimates are not available in the filing.
  • The eventual quantified impact of CECL adoption and the sustainability of earnings growth amid falling portfolio yields and rising funding costs.

Correction: Remaining repurchase authorization was 776,208 shares, not a dollar amount.