UNITED FIRE GROUP INC quarterly report, Q3 FY2011

United Fire & Casualty Company — Q3 2011 Form 10-Q

Reporting period: Quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2011. This filing is for United Fire & Casualty Company and subsidiaries, the insurance company registrant, rather than a filing identified as United Fire Group Inc. Financial statements are unaudited; the independent accountant performed an interim review, not an audit.

Business context

The company writes property and casualty (P&C) and life insurance and sells annuities through independent agencies. It acquired Mercer Insurance Group on March 28, 2011; Mercer’s results are included from that date. Management cited geographic diversification of catastrophe exposure and expanded distribution as benefits of the acquisition.

Financial performance

MetricQ3 2011Q3 2010Nine months 2011Nine months 2010
Net premiums earned$158.7 million$119.2 million$425.1 million$350.5 million
Total revenue$187.6 million$147.9 million$513.5 million$441.0 million
Net investment income$26.9 million$27.1 million$81.7 million$83.3 million
Net income (loss)$(4.8) million$2.9 million$(16.9) million$36.0 million
Diluted earnings (loss) per share$(0.19)$0.11$(0.65)$1.36
  • Underwriting: The P&C combined ratio was 115.7% for Q3 and 119.1% year to date, versus 110.3% and 99.7%, respectively, in 2010. Ratios above 100% indicate underwriting losses. P&C underwriting losses were $22.7 million for Q3 and $73.3 million year to date.
  • Catastrophes: Pre-tax catastrophe losses were $23.7 million in Q3 and $71.0 million year to date, compared with $4.7 million and $15.4 million in 2010. Events included severe storms, assumed New Zealand earthquake losses, and Japan earthquake and tsunami losses.
  • Cash flow: Operating cash flow was $54.6 million for nine months, compared with $56.3 million. Investing used $148.0 million, including $171.4 million net cash for the Mercer acquisition; financing provided $67.8 million. Cash and cash equivalents ended at $154.5 million, down from $180.1 million at year-end 2010.

Financial position and material changes

  • Total assets were $3.60 billion at September 30, 2011, versus $3.01 billion at December 31, 2010. Invested assets were $2.87 billion, up $384.5 million, principally reflecting Mercer’s acquired portfolio.
  • Stockholders’ equity was $685.5 million, down from $716.4 million; book value per share was $26.88 versus $27.35. The decline reflected the net loss, $11.7 million of dividends and $12.4 million of share repurchases, partly offset by higher unrealized investment gains.
  • Debt was $53.0 million, including a $50.0 million acquisition-related line of credit and $3.0 million of Mercer borrowing. The company also had $15.6 million of acquired trust preferred securities. It reported compliance with credit covenants; the $50 million line had repayment provisions requiring repayment on or before the nine-month anniversary of its March 24, 2011 issuance.
  • Available-for-sale fixed maturities were $2.67 billion. Net unrealized investment gains were $109.9 million, up $7.2 million since year-end. Management said unrealized fixed-maturity losses were primarily related to interest rates and reported no direct subprime mortgage exposure.
  • The company repurchased 701,140 shares for $12.4 million during the nine months; 471,686 shares remained authorized for repurchase under the program.

Management commentary, outlook and risks

  • Management attributed the earnings deterioration mainly to catastrophe and other claims, assumed reinsurance losses, and acquisition-related expenses. It expected Mercer-related deferred acquisition cost amortization to remain higher than normal through the rest of 2011 and into Q1 2012. The filing provides no specific earnings or revenue guidance.
  • P&C net premiums written rose 43.5% in Q3 and 27.5% year to date, reflecting Mercer, controlled rate increases and internal growth initiatives. Policy retention was approximately 81%. Management reported improved pricing trends in some commercial and personal lines, while noting competitive pressure in new commercial business.
  • Deferred annuity sales increased 56.2% in Q3 and 24.5% year to date, which management attributed to demand for guaranteed returns amid volatile equity markets and a new agency. Life segment pre-tax income declined to $2.9 million in Q3 and $9.2 million year to date, with lower investment income and higher future policy benefits cited as factors.
  • Approximately 59 individual policyholder cases related to Hurricane Katrina remained pending. Management considered recorded reserves adequate but cautioned that estimates may change with litigation developments; Katrina-related loss and settlement expenses were $6.0 million year to date. A settlement of two Mercer merger-related suits awaited final court approval and was described as not material.
  • Other exposures include catastrophe frequency and severity, reserve adequacy, reinsurance recoverability and counterparty strength, investment-market and interest-rate risk, and estimates for deferred acquisition costs, benefit obligations and goodwill. A partnership investment carried a remaining potential capital contribution commitment of $9.6 million through 2017.

Most important facts for investors to verify

  1. Whether catastrophe losses, reserve development and the elevated combined ratio persist, and how much reinsurance recovery is ultimately collected.
  2. Mercer’s ongoing underwriting profitability and the extent and duration of acquisition-related amortization and expenses.
  3. Repayment or refinancing of the $50 million line of credit under its repayment terms, alongside the acquired trust preferred obligations.
  4. Developments in the Katrina litigation, reserve adequacy, and final approval of the Mercer merger settlement.
  5. Investment portfolio valuation and income sensitivity to interest rates, credit conditions and any future impairment assessments.