CAT

Business Context and Reporting Period

This Form 8-K, filed on April 21, 2009, by Caterpillar Inc. (Caterpillar), provides supplemental Regulation FD disclosure regarding dealer deliveries for its Machinery and Engines lines of business. The report covers the three-month rolling period ending March 2009 (January through March) and compares these figures to the same months in the prior year. The data is based on unaudited reports from independent dealers and is calculated in constant dollars.

Key Financial Metrics and Dealer Statistics

The filing does not provide specific revenue, profit, cash flow, margin, debt, or liquidity figures for the current period. Instead, it presents percentage changes in retail sales of machines and engines compared to the prior year.

Retail Sales of Machines (3-Month Rolling Period)

• World Total: Down 33% (March 2009), Down 27% (February 2009), Down 22% (January 2009).
• North America: Down 41% (March 2009), Down 35% (February 2009), Down 30% (January 2009).
• EAME (Europe, Africa, Middle East): Down 44% (March 2009), Down 37% (February 2009), Down 27% (January 2009).
• Asia/Pacific: Down 13% (March 2009), Down 8% (February 2009), Down 15% (January 2009).
• Latin America: Down 6% (March 2009), Down 2% (February 2009), Up 4% (January 2009).
• Rest of World (ROW): Down 28% (March 2009), Down 22% (February 2009), Down 17% (January 2009).

Sales of Reciprocating & Turbine Engines (3-Month Rolling Period)

• Total Engine Sales: Down 2% (March 2009), Down 1% (February 2009), Up 1% (January 2009).
• Truck & Bus: Down 62% (March 2009), Down 56% (February 2009), Down 55% (January 2009).
• Electric Power: Up 15% (March 2009), Up 1% (February 2009), Up 1% (January 2009).
• Industrial: Down 30% (March 2009), Down 25% (February 2009), Down 19% (January 2009).
• Marine: Up 12% (March 2009), Up 19% (February 2009), Up 13% (January 2009).
• Petroleum: Up 13% (March 2009), Up 13% (February 2009), Up 16% (January 2009).

Material Changes and Reporting Adjustments

The filing highlights a significant reporting change regarding Cat Japan. Historically, Cat Japan statistics were presented separately. Going forward, starting with April dealer statistics posted in May 2009, Cat Japan will be incorporated into the Asia/Pacific region totals. The filing notes that including Cat Japan in the Asia/Pacific region would have resulted in a larger decline for that region (e.g., Down 21% in March 2009 versus Down 13% without Cat Japan).

Material declines in machine sales were observed across all major regions, with North America and EAME experiencing the steepest drops (41% and 44% respectively in March 2009). Conversely, engine sales in the Electric Power, Marine, and Petroleum sectors showed growth, offsetting severe declines in the Truck & Bus and Industrial sectors.

Guidance, Outlook, and Risks

The filing contains no specific financial guidance or quantitative outlook for future periods. It includes a Safe Harbor statement identifying forward-looking statements and associated risks. Key risks cited include:

• Adverse changes in general economic conditions and the industries served (construction, mining, energy, etc.).
• Ability to manage material costs (including steel) and freight costs.
• Ability to generate cash from operations and manage liquidity needs.
• Material adverse changes in customers' access to liquidity and capital.
• Currency exchange and interest rate fluctuations.
• Political stability, market acceptance of products, and competitive environment changes.
• External factors such as epidemic diseases and severe weather conditions.

Important Facts for Investor Verification

• Data Source: Verify that the sales figures are based on unaudited dealer reports and represent deliveries to end users, not Caterpillar's direct revenue recognition.
• Reporting Methodology: Confirm the impact of the new reporting structure where Cat Japan is consolidated into the Asia/Pacific region for future comparisons.
• Constant Dollars: Note that all percentage changes are calculated in constant dollars, excluding the impact of currency fluctuations on the reported growth/decline rates.
• Segment Divergence: Observe the divergence between declining machine sales and mixed engine sales, specifically the resilience in Electric Power, Marine, and Petroleum sectors versus the collapse in Truck & Bus.
• Liquidity Context: Cross-reference the risks regarding customer access to liquidity with the company's broader financial statements (Form 10-K) to assess potential credit exposure.