Chubb Ltd quarterly report, Q3 FY2013

ACE Limited — Q3 2013 Form 10-Q

Reporting period: Quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2013. The filing identifies ACE Limited, a Swiss-incorporated global insurer and reinsurer, as the registrant; it is not filed under the name Chubb Ltd. Figures below are U.S. dollars unless noted. Interim results are unaudited.

Key financial metrics

MetricQ3 2013Q3 2012Nine months 2013Nine months 2012
Net premiums written$4.620 billion$4.716 billion$12.809 billion$12.418 billion
Net premiums earned$4.610 billion$4.665 billion$12.250 billion$11.829 billion
Total revenues$5.172 billion$5.138 billion$14.187 billion$13.249 billion
Net income$916 million$640 million$2.760 billion$1.941 billion
Diluted EPS$2.66$1.86$8.02$5.67
P&C combined ratio86.5%92.0%87.5%90.2%
Net investment income$522 million$533 million$1.587 billion$1.614 billion

For the first nine months, operating cash flow was $2.736 billion, versus $3.025 billion a year earlier. Cash was $768 million at September 30. Total assets were $94.584 billion, shareholders’ equity $28.218 billion, and total investments approximately $60.3 billion. Debt was $5.709 billion, up from $4.761 billion at year-end 2012; debt-to-capitalization rose to 16.7% from 14.6%.

Material changes and drivers

  • Q3 net income rose 43% year over year, as lower losses and loss expenses and a lower combined ratio more than offset slightly lower premiums earned and investment income. Nine-month net income increased 42%.
  • Q3 net premiums written declined 2.0% as reported, primarily from lower North American Agriculture retention and the absence of a prior-year Global Reinsurance loss-portfolio-transfer treaty. Overseas General and North American P&C premiums grew. Nine-month written premiums increased 3.2%.
  • Favorable prior-year reserve development was $210 million in Q3 and $408 million year to date, compared with $236 million and $442 million in the respective 2012 periods. Q3 catastrophe losses, excluding reinstatement premiums, were $80 million, versus $55 million.
  • ACE acquired Mexican surety insurer Fianzas Monterrey for approximately $293 million in April and Mexican P&C insurer ABA Seguros for approximately $690 million in May. Acquisitions contributed to Overseas General growth; acquisition-related goodwill and intangible assets were based on preliminary purchase-price allocations.
  • Investment fair values were affected by rising interest rates and foreign exchange. Nine-month other comprehensive income was a loss of $1.513 billion, largely reflecting a $1.570 billion unrealized investment depreciation before tax; AOCI fell to $1.374 billion from $2.887 billion at year-end 2012.

Outlook, risks and unusual items

  • No specific earnings or premium guidance was provided. Management said operating cash flows should cover outflows under most near-term loss scenarios and reported compliance with credit-facility covenants.
  • Management identified market and interest-rate movements, catastrophe losses, reserve-estimation uncertainty, reinsurer collectability, foreign exchange, competition, regulation, and acquisition execution as risks. The filing estimates that a 100-basis-point increase in interest rates would reduce fixed-income portfolio value by approximately $2.3 billion.
  • Variable-annuity guarantee reinsurance remains exposed to equity markets, interest rates, credit spreads, and policyholder behavior. The company had ceased writing this business in 2007; its GLB liability was $746 million, and management cautioned that model assumptions and actual experience could differ materially. Market movements generated $608 million of GLB-related realized gains year to date, partly offset by $413 million of losses on associated equity hedges.
  • An internal environmental-reserve review increased gross Brandywine reserves by $102 million and net reserves by $59 million. Management cited adverse court rulings, higher estimated future costs, and higher-than-expected payments. Ordinary-course claims litigation is included in reserves; other litigation and regulatory matters were considered unlikely to be material, in management’s view.
  • ACE issued $950 million of senior notes in March: $475 million at 2.70% due 2023 and $475 million at 4.15% due 2043. A $500 million note due June 2014 was reclassified as short-term debt. Q3 share repurchases were $21 million; the nine-month total was $233 million.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • Confirm the registrant and issuer identity: this supplied filing is ACE Limited’s 2013 Q3 10-Q, notwithstanding the request metadata naming Chubb Ltd.
  • Assess the sustainability of earnings growth by separating underwriting results and favorable reserve releases from realized investment and derivative gains.
  • Review reserve adequacy, especially Brandywine environmental and other run-off liabilities, and the scale and sources of favorable prior-period development.
  • Evaluate catastrophe exposure, reinsurance recoverables and counterparty quality, and crop-insurance retention and reinsurance arrangements.
  • Track interest-rate and equity-market sensitivity, GLB valuation assumptions, debt maturities, and actual available borrowing capacity; the filing reports $1.9 billion of credit lines and $1.3 billion used to support letters of credit.