Caledonia Mining Corp Plc annual report, Q4 FY2021

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc — FY2021 Form 20-F

Reporting period: Fiscal year ended December 31, 2021; audited consolidated financial statements prepared under IFRS and presented in US dollars. This is an annual report, not a standalone Q4 report, and the filing does not provide a clear standalone Q4 financial summary.

Business context and key financial metrics

Caledonia’s principal operating asset is the Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe, in which it holds a 64% interest. All Blanket gold is sold to Fidelity under Zimbabwean requirements. The company also acquired the Maligreen exploration project in 2021.

MetricFY2021FY2020
Revenue$121.3m$100.0m
Gross profit / gross margin$54.1m / 44.6%$46.7m / 46.7%
Operating profit / operating margin$38.4m / 31.6%$40.7m / 40.7%
Profit before tax$38.0m$40.4m
Net profit$23.1m$25.3m
Profit attributable to Caledonia shareholders$18.4m$20.8m
Basic EPS$1.49$1.73
Cash from operating activities$30.9m$31.0m
Capital expenditure, cash basis$37.8m$27.8m
Cash and cash equivalents, before overdraft$17.2m$19.1m
Working capital surplus$35.2m$34.6m

At year-end, the company had no term loans outstanding, but reported an $0.9m bank overdraft. It also reported $3.1m of derivative financial liabilities associated with a gold loan and call options; the gold loan was repayable through gold deliveries or cash. The filing reports positive working capital and management expected available cash and operating receipts to meet capital needs.

Blanket produced 67,476 ounces, up from 57,899 ounces. The realized gold price averaged $1,766/oz, versus $1,749/oz. On-mine cost was $742/oz. The filing gives inconsistent FY2021 AISC figures: $955/oz in its cost reconciliation and $990/oz in its guidance discussion; investors should verify the correct figure. Adjusted EPS, a non-IFRS measure, was 226 cents versus 204 cents.

Material changes versus FY2020

  • Revenue rose 21%, reflecting a 17% increase in production and a modest increase in realized gold price.
  • Gross profit increased, but operating profit fell 6% and net profit fell 8%. Higher production costs, depreciation, administration and other expenses contributed; the 2020 comparison also included $4.8m of other income, principally a gold export incentive that had ended by 2021.
  • Cash from operations was broadly unchanged. Investing outflows increased as capital spending expanded; net cash and cash equivalents declined to $16.3m after overdraft.
  • Capital spending included $13.0m for the Central Shaft, $8.2m for capital development and $4.0m to acquire Maligreen claims. Gross proceeds of $7.8m were raised through the VFEX listing.

Outlook, risks and unusual items

  • Guidance: 2022 production guidance is 73,000–80,000 ounces; the company targets 80,000 ounces annually from 2023. 2022 on-mine cost guidance is $669–$736/oz and AISC guidance is $880–$970/oz.
  • Expansion and power: The Central Shaft was commissioned in March 2021, later than planned. Additional development contributed to an estimated $3.5m increase in 2022 planned capital expenditure. A 12 MWac solar plant, with total project costs estimated at about $14.1m, was delayed by equipment supply constraints and was expected to be commissioned in June 2022. Grid interruptions had increased diesel generator use and costs.
  • Gold price hedging: After year-end, Caledonia entered a cap-and-collar hedge covering 20,000 ounces from March through July 2022, with a $1,825/oz collar and $1,940/oz cap. It then spent $0.8m on additional call options to restore some upside above the cap. The reported impact was not yet determinable.
  • Zimbabwe exposure: Key risks include political and regulatory changes, inflation and currency controls, foreign-exchange availability and the ability to transfer funds out of Zimbabwe. Following its VFEX listing, the company expected about 71.5% of Blanket revenue to be received in US dollars, subject to the relevant policy and production levels. Fidelity is the sole gold buyer, creating counterparty concentration.
  • Operations and safety: Water and electricity availability, input-cost inflation, labor, mine hazards and COVID-19 remain risks. The filing reports 232 COVID-19 cases in 2021 and two related deaths. A fatal mine accident occurred on February 21, 2022.
  • Exploration and impairments: Maligreen’s estimated 940,000 ounces are inferred resources only, not reserves, and depend on historical data with QA/QC limitations. Caledonia impaired $3.8m of Glen Hume exploration costs and $0.8m of an Eersteling sale receivable in 2021. After year-end it decided not to pursue Connemara North, expecting a further $0.5m impairment.
  • Other: Management reported effective disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting at year-end; auditor attestation of internal controls was not provided under the emerging-growth-company exemption. The filing reports no material legal proceedings or contingent liabilities.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • Reconcile the filing’s conflicting FY2021 AISC figures of $955/oz and $990/oz.
  • Track 2022 production, cost performance, development spending and the commissioning and economics of the solar plant against stated targets.
  • Confirm the settlement, exposure and realized outcomes of the gold loan, call options and 2022 cap-and-collar hedges.
  • Monitor Zimbabwe foreign-currency access, Fidelity payment timing, and the actual US-dollar share of mine proceeds.
  • Assess the reliability and potential economic conversion of Maligreen’s inferred resource, including the planned QA/QC work and drilling.