FLOWERS FOODS INC annual report, FY2016

Business context and reporting period

Flowers Foods, Inc. filed this Form 10-K for the 52-week fiscal year ended December 31, 2016. The request metadata says “2015 Q4,” but the supplied filing is for fiscal 2016; its fourth-quarter figures are for 2016. Flowers produces branded and private-label breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes and tortillas through direct-store-delivery (DSD) and warehouse-delivery segments. DSD generated 84% of fiscal 2016 sales. The company reported 49 bakeries and approximately 10,800 employees.

Financial performance and position

MetricFiscal 2016Prior comparable period
Sales$3.927 billion$3.779 billion, +3.9%
Income from operations$263.9 million; 6.7% of sales$297.9 million; 7.9% of sales
Net income$163.8 million; 4.2% of sales$189.2 million; 5.0% of sales
Diluted earnings per share$0.78$0.89
Cash provided by operating activities$346.0 million$318.3 million
Capital expenditures$101.7 million$90.8 million
Cash and cash equivalents at year end$6.4 million$14.4 million
Debt and capital lease obligations, carrying value$958.2 million total; $946.7 million long-term$1,004.7 million total; $930.0 million long-term
Cash dividends per share$0.6250$0.5675

Operating cash flow less capital expenditures was approximately $244.3 million. The company reported $552.1 million available under its revolving credit facility and receivables securitization facility combined. It was in compliance with debt covenants at year end.

Material changes versus prior period

  • Sales growth was driven primarily by the full-year contribution and wider distribution of Dave’s Killer Bread (DKB) and Alpine Valley, acquired in 2015. Branded retail sales rose 6.1%; overall pricing/mix was slightly negative.
  • Net income fell 13.4%, and operating margin declined 1.2 percentage points. Fiscal 2016 included $24.9 million of asset impairment charges, $10.5 million of accrued legal settlements and related tax liabilities, a $6.6 million pension settlement loss, and $6.3 million of Project Centennial consulting expense.
  • Interest expense increased, including $1.9 million of debt-extinguishment costs. In September 2016, Flowers issued $400 million of 3.50% senior notes due 2026 and used proceeds in part to repay term loans and reduce other borrowings.
  • Fiscal 2016 repurchases totaled $126.3 million, including a $120 million accelerated share repurchase; dividends paid were $131.1 million.
  • In the fourth quarter, sales were $868.7 million versus $858.4 million a year earlier, while net income was $13.0 million versus $32.2 million. The 2016 quarter included significant impairments and legal and pension charges.

Outlook, commentary, risks and unusual items

  • Management described expected fresh-bakery demand as stable, with growth expected from organic brands, partly offset by softer demand for some other products. It did not provide a specific fiscal 2017 sales or earnings forecast in the supplied text.
  • Fiscal 2017 capital expenditures were estimated at $95 million to $105 million. Project Centennial consulting costs were expected to be $25 million to $30 million in fiscal 2017. Management expected approximately $5 million of pension income, excluding any further settlement losses.
  • After year end, Flowers sold its Cedar Rapids mix plant for $44 million; it estimated a preliminary gain of $31 million to $33 million for recognition in first-quarter fiscal 2017.
  • Key risks include distributor misclassification litigation affecting the DSD model, customer concentration (Walmart/Sam’s Club represented 19.6% of sales; the top 10 customers 46.8%), competition and pricing pressure, commodity and fuel-cost volatility, pension assumptions, and execution of acquisitions and operational initiatives.
  • Flowers was defending 26 distributor misclassification complaints; unresolved claims’ possible loss range could not be reasonably estimated. It also disclosed securities class-action litigation and a Department of Labor compliance review under the Fair Labor Standards Act. The company said it was cooperating with the review.
  • The company recorded $15 million of trademark impairments following brand rationalization work; it reclassified the affected trademarks as finite-lived and will amortize them. Further brand-review effects and pension settlement charges were possible.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • Confirm the intended reporting period: the supplied filing covers fiscal 2016, not fiscal 2015 Q4.
  • Review the causes and persistence of the lower operating margin and net income, separating recurring performance from impairments, legal settlements, pension charges and project costs.
  • Track organic-brand growth, DKB production capacity and sales, and underlying volumes and pricing in the core bread business.
  • Monitor outcomes and potential costs of distributor and securities litigation, and developments in the DOL review and independent-contractor model.
  • Assess debt maturities, variable-rate exposure, available borrowing capacity, cash returns to shareholders and funding needs for capital spending and leases.
  • Check execution and realized savings from Project Centennial, including the stated fiscal 2017 consulting costs and the Cedar Rapids divestiture gain.