NATIONAL RURAL UTILITIES COOPERATIVE FINANCE CORP quarterly report, Q1 FY2017

Business context and reporting period

National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corporation (CFC) is a member-owned, tax-exempt cooperative lender serving rural electric utilities; its consolidated results include RTFC and NCSC. This Form 10-Q covers the quarter ended August 31, 2016, CFC’s first quarter of fiscal 2017. Results are compared with the three months ended August 31, 2015; balance-sheet changes are compared with May 31, 2016.

Key financial metrics

MetricQuarter or period-end resultComparable / change
Interest income$256.8 millionUp 4% from $246.1 million
Interest expense$181.1 millionUp 9% from $165.7 million
Net interest income$75.8 million; yield 1.26%Down $4.7 million; yield down 18 basis points
Provision for loan losses$1.9 millionDown from $4.6 million
Derivative losses$188.3 millionCompared with $12.0 million losses
Net income (loss)$(132.3) million consolidated; $(131.6) million attributable to CFC$43.1 million consolidated income; $43.3 million attributable to CFC
Adjusted net income and adjusted TIER$32.6 million; 1.16$35.0 million; 1.19
Operating cash flow$100.6 million$110.7 million
Total assets / loans to members, net$24.68 billion / $23.53 billionAssets up 2% from May 31; loans up 2%
Total debt outstanding$22.91 billionUp $306.6 million, or 1%, from May 31
Total equity$652.9 millionDown $164.5 million from May 31
Liquidity reserve$6.95 billion availableIncludes $631 million cash, cash equivalents and time deposits

Cash and cash equivalents increased by $86.1 million to $290.7 million. Cash flows were $100.6 million from operations, $(316.6) million from investing and $302.0 million from financing. The filing reports no gross margin measure. Total debt includes short-term borrowings of $3.15 billion, long-term debt of $17.57 billion, subordinated deferrable debt of $742.2 million and members’ subordinated certificates of $1.44 billion.

Material changes versus prior comparable period

  • The reported quarterly loss was primarily driven by $164.9 million of derivative forward-value losses, alongside $23.4 million of derivative cash-settlement expense. Management attributes the forward-value loss mainly to falling longer-term rates and a flattening yield curve; it is a fair-value mark that can create GAAP earnings volatility.
  • Adjusted net interest income fell 13% to $52.4 million, and adjusted net interest yield declined 21 basis points to 0.86%. Management cited lower loan yields and higher funding costs. Average interest-earning assets grew 7%, while average cost of funds rose 8 basis points to 3.16%.
  • Loans outstanding grew $403.2 million from May 31, primarily in CFC distribution and power-supply loans. Debt increased $306.6 million, largely from higher commercial paper and a $100 million Federal Financing Bank advance.
  • Equity fell $164.5 million from May 31, mainly due to the reported loss and a $42.1 million patronage capital retirement payable. GAAP debt-to-equity rose to 36.80 from 28.69; adjusted debt-to-equity was 5.94 versus 5.82.
  • Loan-loss allowance was $33.1 million, or 0.14% of loans, versus $38.3 million a year earlier. The filing reports no nonperforming loans at August 31 and criticized loans equal to 0.2% of the portfolio.

Outlook, risks and unusual items

  • Management expects new long-term loan advances to exceed scheduled repayments by about $462 million over the next 12 months, while anticipating lower net interest income and adjusted net interest income as loan yields decline and interest expense increases.
  • Long-term debt maturities over the next 12 months were $2.46 billion. CFC stated it expects sufficient liquidity from cash, repayments, committed facilities and debt-market access. Its $6.95 billion reserve includes $3.31 billion available under bank revolvers, $500 million under then-available USDA Guaranteed Underwriter Program facilities, and up to $2.51 billion under Farmer Mac agreements, subject to market conditions where applicable. A further $375 million USDA guarantee commitment was received September 28, 2016; closing would raise available program facilities to $875 million.
  • CFC expected to roll over $2.44 billion of member short-term debt and $710 million of dealer commercial paper, and intended to keep dealer commercial paper below $1.25 billion. Management expected compliance with debt covenants; CFC reported compliance as of August 31. Its adjusted debt-to-equity goal is at or below 6.00, compared with 5.94 at quarter-end.
  • The July 1 sale of foreclosed-asset holding company CAH generated $109 million net proceeds from a $144 million purchase price after closing adjustments. $16 million was placed in escrow for potential indemnification claims for 15 months. RTFC provided the buyer a $60 million loan, guaranteed unsecured by the buyer’s parent. CFC recorded a $1.1 million quarterly loss related to foreclosed assets and reported none on its balance sheet at August 31.
  • Derivative agreements include rating-trigger termination provisions. A qualifying downgrade scenario could require net payments of up to $489.9 million under the disclosed triggers. CFC’s senior unsecured ratings were A2 from Moody’s and A from S&P, both with stable outlooks; all three disclosed agency outlooks were stable.
  • RTFC is contesting a Virgin Islands tax deficiency notice covering specified tax years from 1996–2005. Management said it believes the claims are without merit; the matter remained pending, with no legal reserve recorded. Management reported no known material changes to the risk factors in the 2016 Form 10-K.

Important facts for investors to verify

  • How much of future reported earnings volatility may arise from derivative fair-value movements, and how adjusted results reconcile to GAAP results and actual cash settlement costs.
  • Whether falling loan yields and rising funding costs cause adjusted net interest income or adjusted TIER to deteriorate further.
  • Debt maturity, commercial-paper rollover and committed-facility availability, including conditions, collateral requirements and market dependence.
  • Whether CFC maintains its adjusted debt-to-equity goal and covenant compliance as loans and funding grow.
  • Credit quality, allowance assumptions, borrower concentration and the performance of Farmer Mac-covered loans; the filing states no covered loans had been put to Farmer Mac for purchase.
  • Potential CAH indemnification claims against escrowed proceeds and the repayment and guarantee terms of RTFC’s buyer financing.
  • Outcome of RTFC’s pending Virgin Islands tax dispute and any resulting financial exposure.