Business Context and Reporting Period
Company: Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico, S.A.B. de C.V. (Pacific Airport Group)
Filing Type: Form 6-K (Report of Foreign Private Issuer)
Reporting Period: December 2008 (Preliminary figures released January 7, 2009)
Operations: GAP operates twelve airports in Mexico's Pacific region, including major hubs in Guadalajara and Tijuana, and tourist destinations such as Puerto Vallarta and Los Cabos.
Key Financial and Operational Metrics
Passenger Traffic (December 2008 vs. December 2007):
- Total Terminal Passengers: Decreased 16.8%
- International Passengers: Decreased 10.9% (81.3 thousand fewer passengers)
- Domestic Passengers: Decreased 19.9% (285.3 thousand fewer passengers net across most airports)
Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) Activity:
- LCCs transported approximately 575.3 thousand passengers in December 2008.
- LCCs represented 50.17% of total domestic passengers.
- Weekly LCC flight segments increased by 58 compared to November 2008, totaling 735 frequencies.
Financial Metrics: The filing does not provide specific revenue, profit, cash flow, debt, or liquidity figures for the period. It only provides forward-looking estimates for 2009.
Material Changes and Operational Drivers
The significant decline in passenger traffic was driven by the suspension of operations and bankruptcy of several airlines, including Aerocalifornia, Avolar, Alma, Aviacsa, and Mexicana. Specific airport impacts included:
- Tijuana: Decline of 133.4 thousand domestic passengers due to route suspensions.
- Guadalajara: Decline of 57.4 thousand domestic passengers and 38.5 thousand international passengers.
- Los Cabos: The only airport reporting domestic growth (+2.9 thousand passengers), though international traffic fell by 8.1 thousand.
- Morelia: Reported a slight increase in international traffic (+2.5 thousand passengers).
Guidance, Outlook, and Risks
2009 Revised Guidance: Due to the adverse economic environment and airline bankruptcies, GAP revised its 2009 outlook downward:
- Total Terminal Passengers: Estimated decline of 3% to 5% compared to 2008.
- Aeronautical Services Revenues: Estimated decline of 0% to 3%.
- Commercial Revenues: Estimated decline of 2% to 5%.
- Costs of Services: Estimated decline of 2% to 6%.
- EBITDA Margin: Estimated at 64% to 65%.
- Tax Rate: Estimated at 28%.
Material Contingency (Tax Dispute):
The Mexican tax authority (SAT) is auditing fiscal 2005 results for Aguascalientes Airport S.A. de C.V., specifically questioning the amortization rate used for the concession value. The Company disputed the authority's arguments in December 2008. If the authorities do not accept the Company's defense, they may recommend liquidation for unpaid taxes, which could have an adverse effect on financial results.
Investor Verification Checklist
- Verify the extent of the tax liability exposure regarding the Aguascalientes Airport 2005 audit and the status of the dispute with the SAT.
- Monitor the recovery or further decline of traffic at Tijuana and Guadalajara airports, which saw the largest absolute drops.
- Assess the stability of the airline partners remaining at GAP airports following the exits of Aerocalifornia, Avolar, Alma, and Mexicana.
- Track the actual 2009 performance against the revised guidance of a 3-5% traffic decline and 64-65% EBITDA margin.