Rolf Nylander

Engineer with master degree accomplishes since 1980. Mostly worked as software system engineer. Here mostly for fun as have been retired for years now. However this is my hobby. And I have been looking at several so called experts, but I don't regard them as 'experts' as they almost always do the same thing. Get a small(er) profit and take a huge risk with a large StoppLoss. As far as I can see thy all fail, sooner or later.

So I did this an own EA or I will call it a lazy man's help. Like a windrudder, it works 27/7 and I can do other things. So what is this doing that no one else is ?

This EA is not bragging about 80% or more profit rate. Win rate is more like 12 to 35% but that is huge when the tp/sl is more then 10. Like the one I bought, (of course that the way most of us start ), all have a large sl and way smaller tp. Example is 21points at win and 1500 as sl. Of course you also need an enormous high win rate to make that equation end up with profit over time. And that is how that nice curve going straight up at 30% makes us wonder how it's done. Of course it's done with a lot of fitting so tp and sl make it work and it sells.

A much better way is to make smaller losses and bigger wins. It is more sustainable and actually profitable. For example, I set up my TP and SL after 5 minutes per pair in the Optimizer covering 2020 to 2024. They all still make profit in 2025 and more important all the way since 2016 - 2025. It's easy to see when an EA is overfitted if there is variables to test. It is shown as horizontal lines in the heat map. So many now hides all the parameters, but still can't hide the tp/sl ratio.

When making this EA I learned a lot of things. (I have been trading on the stock market and futures for 20 years, but Forex is completely different. First I noticed there is not one classic Indicator that is actually working. I tested and registered the price for 50 - 100 bars after a 'signal' and did some data digging. Not one is working. On the contrary, doing the opposite will work even better maybe most of the times. You may fit the signal for some time but in the end the result isn't there.

I also pretty fast found that trailing isn't working as the size of the wriggling is so big that we loose most of the profit that could be. So trailing may look as a beneficiary feature but in reality it is not. It may help get some big wins but overall it's a loss in most cases even if we adjust the sl to break even even after 95% of the tp is achieved. There is a way to go by selling off halt the lot at some point and let the rest 'run'. However it also may be more profitable to gamble the full lot on reaching tp.

So what is there to do ? I set it up to make bigger wins and smaller losses. I may loose up to 90% of trades but still make good profit. Very small losses and big wins is a profitable concept that actually works. Why is it not common ? Because overfitting and a nice curve sells very good. However with so many trades my curve also look very nice and it works in the long run. Not on all pairs as my setup need volatility. The bigger the better. So the problem is mainly to find volatile pairs. GBP is commonly said to act erroneus, but that is good volatility and acts in my favor, as do gold and some indices and at least a few more currencies.

My EA now trades ten pairs, which is easily expanded. Everything is indexed and there is very few parameters. I will open up the tp and sl with time if you want better optimization, but it's my believe it's really no good. For the time now the only parameters is which pairs to trade and to set the lot size for each one. Indices and Energy like XBRUSD may only be traded by whole or sometimes half lots. (Which is ok with so small sl's).

All this comes with something to consider. Trading ten pairs at the same time demands a bigger balance. But it's fully possible to start with only one and grow into more pairs as balance grow. (Because it will, or at least it's a very good chance it will). It's impossible to guarantee, no one can know what will happen tomorrow. I can only say I think using this EA is my best chance to really earn money on Forex.

I give two examples. Nasdaq100 I trade with a tp of 22358.35 at the price 22106.35 with sl at 22082.35. TP is 252 points and SL is 24 points. The TP/SL ratio here is 10.5 and the win rate on this indices is 34%. that means I win on average 34 * 228 points and looses 66 * 24 points which results in a win of total 6168 points on one hundred trades. The best thing is there is never a big loss I can't handle.

Next example is on Gold ./. USD Price was 1240.03 sl at 1239.78 and tp at 1245.3 that means a risk of 25 points against a win at 500 points. Or a tp/sl ration of 20. With that setup I only need one win for every twenty losses, but the win rate has been closer to 15-16% making this very good.

So there is no use of any magic like grid or putting more gas on the fire if it goes against me, I know next win is not far away.

I will provide some nice 'profit curves' that is from the past and absolutely no guarantee for the future but a hint what it may be.

To begin I set the EA up to trade with small lots, smallest available and you may increase it with time as you get more confident this is working for you. I started with 2000$ trading just gold, one currency and one of the indices.

Oh, this EA is not cheap. It took me 2 years of hard work. (Ask muy understanding wife). So I can't let it be cheap. But if there is no win in the first year I will give that money back or send to charity whatever you choose. This is the best guarantee I can give. If I due to my age can't keep supporting this software I will provide the source. (Hopefully that will never have to take place, but who knows, I am now 73). Maybe my grandson can continue, I started this because of him and to provide for his college.

Графики и идеи