Market Structure & ICT Context (H4) USTEC (US Tech 100) remains firmly in a Bearish Market Structure on the H4 timeframe following the aggressive displacement leg down from the 30,021.80 swing high to the 28,089.00 swing low.
While the breakdown purged major Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) below the previous structural floor, the vertical drop left behind significant price inefficiency (Fair Value Gaps / SIBI). Rather than chasing shorts in deep discount around 28,594, institutional order flow typically seeks to rebalance inefficiency toward Equilibrium before initiating the next expansion leg down.
Key Dealing Range & PD Arrays
- Current Dealing Range: 30,021.80 (High) to 28,089.00 (Low)
- 50% Equilibrium (Consequent Encroachment): 29,055.00
- Immediate Intraday Test: 28,595.00 – 28,680.00 (Lower H4 SIBI)
- Primary Supply POI (Bearish Breaker + SIBI): 28,820.00 – 28,980.00
- Main Draw on Liquidity (Target): 28,089.00 (Resting Sell-Side Liquidity)
Primary Gameplan (Bearish Continuation — 65% Probability)
- Intraday Rebalance: Expect a relief bounce during the London / early NY session to clear immediate inefficiency and draw price up into the 28,820.00 – 28,980.00 H4 Bearish Breaker & SIBI zone (just below the 50% Equilibrium at 29,055.00).
- Confirmation Trigger: Once price taps the 28,820 – 28,980 supply box, drop down to the M15/M5 timeframe during the London or NY AM Killzone and wait for a short-term liquidity sweep followed by a Bearish Market Structure Shift (MSS) with displacement.
- Target: Ride the bearish continuation leg back down toward internal liquidity at 28,300.00 and ultimately a full retest/purge of the 28,089.00 low.
Invalidation & Alternative Scenario (35% Probability) If an H1 or H4 candle closes cleanly above the 50% Equilibrium at 29,055.00, the bearish breaker setup is invalidated. A clean break above 29,055.00 flips the zone into an Inversion FVG (IFVG) and triggers a deeper short squeeze toward the Premium Bearish Order Block at 29,350.00 – 29,550.00.
Trade safe, wait for lower-timeframe confirmation inside the POI, and manage your risk strictly!
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