Ero Copper Corp. ERO is expected to post year-over-year growth in earnings when it reports first-quarter 2026 results on May 4, after market close.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ero Copper's earnings has moved down over the past 60 days to 56 cents per share for the quarter. The figure indicates solid 60% year-over-year growth.
Ero Copper’s Earnings Surprise History
Ero Copper’s earnings performance has been mixed in recent quarters. Earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and beat the mark in the other two, delivering an average surprise of 29.6%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for ERO
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Ero Copper this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Ero Copper is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: ERO currently has a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Have Shaped ERO's Q1 Performance
Ero Copper’s first-quarter results are likely to reflect a balance between the strong operational momentum seen at the end of 2025 and near-term headwinds typical of the early part of the year. The company exited the fourth quarter of 2025 with record copper and gold production of 19,700 tons and 13,800 ounces, supported by higher grades, improved throughput and increasing contributions from its growth projects. It drove solid revenue and cash flow.
This provides a healthy starting point for 2026, but the first quarter itself is expected to have been comparatively softer. Production is guided to be back-end loaded, meaning copper volumes may have been lower in the first quarter due to mine sequencing and planned ramp-ups later in the year. Of all the quarters, gold output from Xavantina is expected to be lowest in the first quarter due to development work and ventilation upgrades, while seasonal factors like Brazil’s rainy season may further constrain shipments and sales.
Costs are expected to be higher in the first half, with unit costs pressured by lower volumes, continued development activity and external factors such as currency movements and input cost inflation. These dynamics might have weighed on margins in the first quarter before improving as production scales through the year. The impact may have been partially cushioned by relatively supportive copper pricing, similar to what was seen in the fourth quarter.
Currency fluctuations, particularly in the Brazilian real, along with inflation in energy and labor costs, might also have influenced profitability.
ERO Stock’s Price Performance & Valuation
Shares of ERO are up 108.1% in the past year compared with the industry’s 82.6% growth.
Stocks Likely to Deliver Earnings Beat
Here are some Basic Materials stocks with the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. WPM, scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +8.01% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for Wheaton for the first quarter of 2026 is pegged at $1.14 per share, suggesting an 107.3% year-over-year increase. Wheaton has a positive trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 13.7%.
CF Industries CF, scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +1.07% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for CF Industries for the first quarter of 2026 is $2.35 per share, indicating a 27.03% year-over-year increase. CF Industries has a positive trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 13.15%.
The Chemours Company CC, scheduled to release first-quarter 2026 earnings on May 5, has an Earnings ESP of +157.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chemours loss for the first quarter of 2026 is pegged at 5 cents per share, 138.5% wider than the year-ago quarter’s reported loss. Chemours has a negative trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.4%.
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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): Free Stock Analysis Report
The Chemours Company (CC): Free Stock Analysis Report
Ero Copper Corp. (ERO): Free Stock Analysis Report
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).