The quantum computing race has tightened after first-quarter 2026 earnings releases. Macro conditions are shaping investor sentiment toward speculative quantum names. Recent U.S. inflation data has shown moderation, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve System could eventually pivot toward lower interest rates later in 2026.
Lower yields typically support high-growth, pre-profit technology companies by improving valuation multiples. At the same time, a softer U.S. dollar and accelerating AI infrastructure spending have boosted appetite for emerging computing technologies. However, elevated volatility and persistent cash burn remain major risks across the sector.
At this stage, IonQ IONQ appears to be winning the commercial race due to its significantly larger revenue base, expanding backlog and improving enterprise penetration. D-Wave Quantum QBTS is gaining momentum in bookings and hybrid quantum systems, while Rigetti Computing RGTI remains a promising technology-focused challenger with improving execution.
Let’s discuss in detail.
IonQ Leads Commercially, QBTS & RGTI Gain Momentum
IonQ delivered the strongest quarter among pure-play quantum names. Its first-quarter revenues surged 755% year over year to $64.7 million and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 30.2%, driven by strong demand for its Tempo systems, cloud usage and international expansion. The company also raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $260-$270 million and reported remaining performance obligations (RPOs) of $470 million, up 554% year over year. The company noted that nearly 60% of revenues now come from commercial customers, signaling broader enterprise adoption beyond government contracts. Yet, adjusted loss of 34 cents per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 26 cents reflected continued investments in R&D and commercialization efforts.
IONQ Target Price
Based on short-term price targets offered by 12 analysts, the average price target of IONQ represents an increase of 22.2% from the last closing price of $55.87.
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By contrast, D-Wave Quantum delivered mixed first-quarter results. Its revenues declined 81% year over year to $2.9 million and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 42.9% due to the absence of a large system sale recorded in the prior-year quarter. Despite the weak top-line comparison, bookings surged nearly 2,000% year over year to a record $33.4 million, reflecting improving customer demand and pipeline momentum. The growth was supported by a $20 million quantum system order and a multi-year quantum-computing-as-a-service agreement with a Fortune 100 company. Management also highlighted rising enterprise adoption in optimization-related workloads across manufacturing, logistics and artificial intelligence applications, although revenue timing remains uneven. First-quarter 2026 loss of 5 cents per share was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 8 cents.
QBTS Target Price
Based on short-term price targets offered by 13 analysts, the average price target of QBTS represents an increase of 54.3% from the last closing price of $24.03.
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Rigetti posted encouraging operational progress but remains early in commercialization. Revenues nearly tripled to $4.4 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 35.6%, benefiting from higher government-related activity and expanding cloud-based quantum computing services. The company also launched its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system, marking another step forward in its superconducting quantum computing roadmap. Management highlighted continued progress in improving gate fidelity and system performance while expanding availability through major cloud platforms. Rigetti ended the quarter with roughly $569 million in cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments and no debt, providing significant financial flexibility to fund research, infrastructure expansion and future system development initiatives.
RGTI Target Price
Based on short-term price targets offered by 10 analysts, the average price target of RGTI represents an increase of 54.1% from the last closing price of $20.51.
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What Should Investors Do Now?
With all three stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), investors may prefer waiting for clearer commercialization trends and sustained revenue execution. IonQ currently leads in terms of revenue scale and enterprise traction, while D-Wave and Rigetti offer higher-risk, higher-upside potential. Meanwhile, QBTS carries the highest implied upside based on analysts’ average target prices. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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IonQ, Inc. (IONQ): Free Stock Analysis Report
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D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).