A month has gone by since the last earnings report for AGNC Investment (AGNC). Shares have lost about 7.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is AGNC Investment due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
AGNC Investment Q1 Earnings Top Estimates, Book Value Improves Y/Y
AGNC Investment reported first-quarter of 2026 net spread and dollar roll income per common share of 42 cents, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.7%. However, the metric declined 4.5% from the year-ago quarter’s 44 cents.
Adjusted net interest and dollar roll income available to common stockholders of $547 million rose 14.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Results benefited from rallies in average asset yield and net interest income. Also, a rise in tangible net book value per share (BVPS) on the portfolio was positive. However, a reduced net interest spread and a higher weighted average cost of funds were concerning.
Inside AGNC Investment's Headlines
NII came in at $319 million, rising from $159 million a year earlier, but missing the consensus estimate by 3.7%.
AGNC Investment's average asset yield on its portfolio was 4.95% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 4.78% in the first quarter of 2025.
The combined weighted average cost of funds, inclusive of interest rate swap, was 2.92%, up from 2.75% in the first quarter of 2025.
The average net interest spread (excluding estimated “catch-up” premium amortization benefits) was 2.06%, down from 2.12% in the year-ago quarter.
As of March 31, 2026, AGNC’s average tangible net book value “at risk” leverage ratio was 7.4X compared with 7.5X in the prior-year quarter.
In the first quarter, the company's investment portfolio bore an average actual constant prepayment rate of 13.2%, up from 7% in the year-ago quarter.
As of March 31, 2026, tangible net BVPS was $8.38, up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis.
The economic loss on tangible common equity was 1.6% against the economic return on tangible common equity of 2.4% in the year-ago quarter.
As of March 31, 2026, the company’s investment portfolio aggregated $94.7 billion. This included $84.4 billion in Agency mortgage-backed securities, $9.5 billion in net forward purchases/(sales) of Agency MBS in the “to-be-announced” market (“TBA securities”), and $0.7 billion of CRT and non-Agency securities, and other mortgage credit investments.
AGNC Investment’s Balance Sheet Position
As of March 31, 2026, AGNC’s cash and cash equivalents totaled $493 million, up from $450 million in the prior quarter.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended upward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, AGNC Investment has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. Following the exact same course, the stock has a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise AGNC Investment has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).