It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Radian (RDN). Shares have lost about 10.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Radian due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Radian Group Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.
Radian Q1 Earnings & Revenues Top Estimates, Premiums Rise Y/Y
Radian Group Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted operating income of $1.27 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.5%. The bottom line improved 28.3% year over year. Operating revenues increased 55.2% year over year to $475 million, driven by higher premiums earned and net investment income. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 57.2%.
The better-than-expected quarterly results benefited from higher premiums earned, solid investment income, growth in new insurance written and higher mortgage insurance in force. However, elevated expenses and higher primary loan defaults remained headwinds.
Q1 in Detail
Net premiums earned were $403 million, up 72.2% year over year. Net investment income rose 14.8% year over year to $70 million, supported by higher short-term investment balances and maturities, partially offset by securities. MI's new insurance written increased 42% year over year to $13.5 billion.
Primary mortgage insurance in force rose 3% year over year to $282 billion, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.2%. Persistency — the percentage of mortgage insurance remaining in force after 12 months — was 81.3% as of March 31, 2025, down 110 basis points year over year.
Primary delinquent loans represented 2.51% of primary loans in default as of March 31, 2026, compared with 2.33% in the prior-year quarter. Total expenses soared 204.5% year over year to $292.7 million. The expense ratio improved 120 basis points year over year to 20%, reflecting enhanced operating leverage.
RDN’s Financial Update
As of March 31, 2026, Radian reported cash of $55.4 million, surged 123.3% from the 2025-end level. Total assets increased 31.2% to $10.7 billion from the 2025-end level.
Book value per share rose 10% year over year to $35.67. Shareholders’ equity increased 0.6% to $4.8 billion from the 2025-end level. Adjusted net operating return on equity was 14.7%, up 130 basis points year over year.
As of March 31, 2026, Radian Guaranty’s available assets under PMIERs totaled $5.4 billion, resulting in excess available assets of $1.6 billion.
RDN’s Capital Deployment & Dividend Update
During the first quarter of 2026, the company repurchased 1.5 million shares of common stock for $50 million. In the first quarter, Radian paid a quarterly dividend of 25.5 cents per share, totaling approximately $35 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted 15% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Radian has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with an A. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Interestingly, Radian has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Radian belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry. Another stock from the same industry, CNO Financial (CNO), has gained 2.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended March 2026.
CNO reported revenues of $1.05 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.1%. EPS of $1.29 for the same period compares with $0.79 a year ago.
For the current quarter, CNO is expected to post earnings of $0.99 per share, indicating a change of +13.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -2% over the last 30 days.
CNO has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of B.
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Radian Group Inc. (RDN): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).