It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Nutrien (NTR). Shares have added about 0.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Nutrien due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Nutrien’s Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Record Potash Volumes
Nutrien recorded adjusted earnings of 51 cents per share for the first quarter of 2026, up 363.6% year over year. The metric beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 48 cents by 6.3%.
Sales rose 18.5% year over year to $6,046 million and topped the consensus mark of $5,356.7 million by 12.9%.
A key operating highlight was record first-quarter potash sales volumes of 3.51 million tons, supported by strong demand and a well-positioned supply chain.
Segment Highlights
Nutrien Ag Solutions (Retail) generated first-quarter sales of $3,640 million, up 17.8% from $3,090 million a year ago. Management attributed the increase largely to higher crop nutrient sales volumes from core geographies, supported by an earlier start to field activity in the United States, alongside stronger proprietary product demand. The figure beat our estimate of $3,439 million.
The Potash segment posted net sales of $926 million, rising 24.5% year over year on higher global benchmark prices and record sales volumes. The metric beat our estimate of $717 million.
Nitrogen net sales increased 14.6% to $1,014 million, primarily reflecting stronger global benchmarks, while volume softness was tied to the absence of production from the Trinidad and New Madrid facilities. The figure beat our estimate of $795 million
Phosphate net sales climbed 34.7% to $485 million, benefiting from higher sales volumes and stronger benchmarks, though results were tempered by higher sulfur input costs. The figure exceeded our estimate of $344 million.
Financials
Nutrien ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $777 million, up from $701 million at the end of 2025. Long-term debt declined 5.6% to $8,825 million from $9,350 million at the end of 2025, while total long-term debt, including the current portion, was $9,861 million compared with $9,863 million at year-end.
Cash used in operating activities was $851 million in the first quarter. Nutrien said the year-over-year improvement primarily reflected higher fertilizer benchmark pricing, increased Retail earnings and record potash sales volumes.
Outlook
Management reaffirmed full-year guidance ranges following the quarter. Retail adjusted EBITDA is still expected in the $1.75-$1.95 billion range, reflecting the company’s outlook for crop input demand and downstream execution through the year.
Nutrien maintained its sales volume outlook across the upstream portfolio as well. Potash sales volumes are projected at 14.1-14.8 million tons, Nitrogen at 9.2-9.7 million tons and Phosphate at 2.4-2.6 million tons. The company also reiterated capital expenditures guidance of $2-$2.1 billion, with depreciation and amortization expected at $2.4-$2.5 billion and finance costs at $0.65-$0.75 billion.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates revision.
VGM Scores
At this time, Nutrien has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Nutrien has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).