SpaceX (SPCX) has a big test coming, and it has little to do with earnings. When the company went public in June, only about 5% of its shares were actually available to trade. The rest were locked up, meaning insiders and early investors could not sell them yet. That lockup period is now starting to end. The first and largest early release is tied to the company’s first earnings report on Aug. 4. A couple of days after the results, roughly 900 million shares will be freed up. To put that in perspective, that single batch is larger than the entire IPO.
The timing is what makes this tricky. SPCX stock will be digesting its earnings and a huge jump in available shares at the same time. More shares for sale, with the same pool of buyers, tends to push the price down. And this is not a one-off. After the first release, smaller batches of roughly 7% unlock every few weeks through October. This will increase further, releasing up to 28% after the third-quarter results. The final restrictions come off in December. So the supply keeps arriving in waves for months.
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Some of that pressure may already be showing. SPCX now trades below its $135 offer price, down sharply from the highs it reached right after listing. Part of that slide looks like investors selling ahead of the coming supply. There is one small relief. An extra 10% early release was possible, but only if the stock had traded well above its IPO price before earnings. Since it is now below that level, that batch likely will not be added. One man is staying put regardless. Elon Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion shares are locked for a full year, so none of his stake can be sold before mid-2027. For everyone else, though, the next few months bring a steady stream of new shares. Whatever the earnings show, this is the real force acting on the stock.
About SpaceX Stock
SpaceX is a space technology company that provides launch services, space transportation, and satellite communications. Its product portfolio includes the Starship launch system, Starlink satellite internet services, Falcon launch vehicles, and Dragon spacecraft. Founded in 2002, the company is headquartered in “SpaceX Starbase, Starbase” (formerly Boca Chica Village), Texas, and is led by founder and CEO Elon Musk.
SPCX stock listed at $135 on June 12 and surged to over $225 in less than a week. The stock price has since nearly halved, currently trading near its lowest price of less than $120. The continued decline is primarily due to investors positioning for the coming wave of unlocked shares.
www.barchart.comSpaceX is difficult to value on traditional measures. The forward P/E is not meaningful, since the company is currently lossmaking. The forward price-to-sales ratio of 40.33x has no historical average to compare against either, as the stock only listed in June. What the sales figure does show is how richly the stock is priced. The earnings outlook shows why investors are willing to pay up, with analysts expecting growth to skyrocket 363% in 2027 and a further 420% in 2028. The balance sheet is not much of a concern, with SpaceX holding $23.68 billion in cash against $30.60 billion in debt.
Still, a valuation this stretched leaves little room for error, which matters as a wave of newly unlocked shares begins hitting the market.
SpaceX’s First Earnings Land Right Before the Share Flood
SpaceX will be reporting its first quarterly earnings as a public company on Aug. 4. It will be the first full look at the company’s finances since the IPO. Starlink, being the company’s profit engine, will be in the spotlight. Investors want to see subscriber growth holding up and margins improving, especially after SpaceX raised Starlink prices in May. The launch business needs to generate enough to cover the heavy spending on the Starship rocket and the company’s AI arm, which is losing a lot of money. SpaceX reported a multi-billion dollar loss last year, and analysts do not expect it to turn a profit any time soon.
What Do Analysts Expect for SPCX Stock?
Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral initiated coverage of SpaceX with an “Outperform” rating and a price target of $230. The analyst called SpaceX an extraordinary company that is on track to reshape the future of humanity. Maral expects revenue and earnings to grow rapidly through 2028. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned also reiterated a “Buy” with a price target of $239.
Based on the 33 Wall Street analysts, SPCX stock holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with a mean price target of $231.83, indicating a 92% upside. The current stock price sits close to the lowest target of $115, while the highest price target is $800. That optimism is about the long-term business, though, and does little to ease the near-term supply pressure from the coming share unlocks.
www,barchart.com On the date of publication, Jabran Kundi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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