If you own SpaceX (SPCX) stock, or you're thinking about gaining exposure, this week deserves a spot on your calendar. Thursday brings a Starship test flight that SpaceX badly needs to go well, and it's the first of three dates over the next few weeks that could move the stock in a big way.
I've watched plenty of young public companies go through their first real test after an IPO. SpaceX is about to go through three of them at once, and they're all connected. Here's what's happening and why it matters to anyone holding SPCX stock.
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www.barchart.com Starship's 13th Test Flight Targets Liftoff
SpaceX is targeting as early as July 23 for the 13th flight test of Starship, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 5:45 p.m. CT, according to a company statement. The webcast starts about 30 minutes before liftoff.
This flight carries extra weight because of what happened last time. On Flight 12, the Super Heavy booster's directional flip after stage separation was off by roughly 90 degrees, and five of its 33 engines had trouble relighting during the boostback burn. SpaceX says it has made hardware and software changes meant to resolve both problems.
The upper stage had its own issue too. About 40 seconds after separation, Starship lost one of its three vacuum Raptor engines, though the ship still managed to reach its planned suborbital path, per the company statement.
Thursday's flight will also be the first to carry next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, with SpaceX planning to deploy 20 of them and test a laser link to the broader Starlink network, the company said.
Six of those satellites carry cameras aimed at scanning Starship's heat shield, part of an ongoing effort to figure out when the ship is ready to fly straight back to the launch site instead of splashing down. The booster is also targeting an offshore landing burn in the Gulf of Mexico, while the ship aims for a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
It is worth noting SpaceX has had a rocky stretch of launches lately. CNBC reported that a Falcon 9 mission carrying 24 Starlink satellites was scrubbed on Monday before launching successfully on Tuesday, and that last week's Starship attempt was halted after some engines failed to ignite, prompting an automatic abort.
SpaceX Q2 Earnings Kick Off a Much Bigger Event
Thursday's launch is really the appetizer. SpaceX confirmed Aug. 4 as the date of its first quarterly earnings report since going public, with the call scheduled for after market close.
SpaceX built an unusual lockup structure into its IPO, one that lets insiders start selling stock earlier than the standard 180-day wait most newly public companies use, the Motley Fool reported.
The first release of eligible shares can happen on the second full trading day after that first earnings report, which lands on Aug. 6. Bloomberg reported that as many as 911.5 million shares, worth roughly $116 billion at recent prices, become eligible for sale on that date, making it one of the largest share unlocks in market history.
A smaller, additional batch of shares could unlock early only if SPCX trades at $175.50 or higher for five of the ten sessions heading into earnings, something Bloomberg noted is unlikely given where the stock sits now.
More unlocks follow through the rest of the year, with the bulk of remaining shares becoming tradable by Dec. 9.
SPCX Stock Is Under Pressure
SpaceX raised $75 billion in its June IPO by pricing 555 million shares at $135, then added another $10.7 billion when underwriters exercised their option for additional shares, the Motley Fool reported.
Since then, SPCX stock has cooled off considerably and currently trades at $115. Bloomberg reported that about 30% of shares currently available to trade are sold short, and TradingKey cited S3 Partners data showing that figure has grown from around 40 million shares a month ago to roughly 206 million shares now, a nominal position near $25 billion.
Elon Musk pushed back on that trend directly, writing on X that firms holding large short positions in SpaceX rarely survive over time. Part of the pressure ties back to spending on xAI, the AI unit SpaceX absorbed earlier this year. AI-related capital spending jumped to $7.7 billion in the first quarter, roughly triple the prior year, with Morgan Stanley analysts estimating xAI could burn through up to $120 billion in cash between 2026 and 2027.
Notably, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood told Fox Business she still sees SpaceX becoming what she called one of the most important companies in global history, pointing to its combination of rocket launch capability and a global satellite communications network.
What Analysts Are Saying and What's Next for SPCX Stock
Out of 33 analysts covering SPCX stock, 22 recommend “Strong Buy,” two recommend “Moderate Buy,” eight recommend “Hold,” and one recommends “Sell.” The average SPCX price target is $231.83, indicating an upside potential of over 100% from current levels.
Between Thursday's Starship flight, the Aug. 4 earnings report, and the Aug. 6 lockup expiration, SpaceX's shareholders are looking at a stretch where sentiment could swing hard in either direction.
A clean Starship flight would give the company some good news heading into earnings. A rocky one, paired with a wave of newly tradable shares, could add to the stock's recent slide.
Either way, this is a period worth watching closely rather than reacting to in the moment.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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