The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is up +0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.03%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.60%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ26) are up +0.09%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) are up +0.35%.
US stocks are trading mildly higher today due to a -0.3% decline in crude oil prices and generally positive earnings results. Today’s US economic reports were mixed. Strong chip stocks are supporting the Nasdaq 100 index.
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The Sep US durable goods orders report of +1.8% was slightly weaker than market expectations of +1.9% m/m, but was still a relatively strong report. Sep durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +0.5% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.6%. Sep core capital goods orders, excluding defense and air transportation, rose +1.2%, stronger than market expectations of +0.8%.
US home price reports were mixed. The Aug FHFA House Price Index rose +0.3% m/m, slightly stronger than market expectations of +0.2%. However, the S&P Cotality CS 20-City home price index rose +0.27% m/m and +2.65% y/y, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.30% m/m and +2.61% y/y.
The Conference Board’s Oct US consumer confidence index rose +7.5 points to 91.7 from September’s revised 84.2 (preliminary 81.9), much stronger than market expectations for a decline to 81.0.
WTI crude oil prices are down -0.3% today after Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, called for pursuing conditions that Iranian officials have set with the aim of ending the war. He also called for strengthening ties with neighboring countries after top officials from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye met on Monday in Tehran. Khamenei’s statement came after his meeting today with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaee where they reportedly discussed the war and the Strait of Hormuz. Today’s report raised hopes that Iran’s supreme leader might be seeking a deal to end the US naval blockade and potentially drop some sanctions.
On the US side, President Trump told Fox News on Sunday that it’s “getting to be decision time” on whether he will make a deal with Iran or “finish it off.” The US is building up military forces in the Middle East into November and is evacuating non-essential embassy personnel in the Gulf region, fueling speculation that the US might launch a new military attack on Iran after next Tuesday’s (Nov 3) US election.
Markets are awaiting the results of today’s election in Israel to see whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can keep his job. Election turnout is reportedly very high. No single party is expected to claim a parliamentary majority, meaning it could take time for the leading party to form a majority government.
On the AI front, hyper-scalers Alphabet and Microsoft report earnings on Wednesday, and Amazon.com reports on Thursday.
The FOMC, in its 2-day meeting beginning today, is expected to leave interest rates unchanged but maintain a hawkish bias in response to persistent inflation. The ECB meets this Thursday, and the Bank of Japan meets this Friday. Both the ECB and BOJ are expected to leave rates unchanged, with a much higher chance of rate hikes in December.
Stocks are supported by the prospect of solid quarterly earnings. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, Q3 S&P 500 earnings are expected to climb by +26% from a year earlier, up from a July estimate of 22%. As of Monday, 132 of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 80% beating estimates.
Markets are pricing in a 9% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the 2-day FOMC meeting that ends on Wednesday.
Overseas stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.31%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -1.33%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average closed up +1.73%.
Interest Rates
December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down -3.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +0.6 bp to 4.995%. The T-note market is trading defensively ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting that begins today, which is not expected to produce a rate hike but is likely to produce hawkish commentary about the need for additional rate hikes to address above-target inflation. The markets are pricing the odds at 92% for a +25 bp rate hike at the FOMC’s next meeting on December 8-9.
T-note prices are seeing some support from today’s decline in oil prices. However, the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate is slightly higher by +0.1 bp to 2.349%.
European government bond yields are lower. The 10-year German bund yield is down -2.0 bp to 3.347%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down -0.9 bp to 5.335%.
The French 10-year OAT government bond yield is up +4 bp at 4.94%, reversing part of Monday’s -12 bp decline but remaining below last Thursday’s 24-year high of 5.14%. The French bond market was relieved that Moody’s did not downgrade France’s debt rating on Monday, leaving France’s bond rating unchanged at Aa3 with a negative outlook.
Markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at this Thursday’s ECB meeting.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven are mixed. Tesla (TSLA) is the leader with a gain of more than +2%, adding to Monday’s rally of more than +5%. On Monday, Barclays upgraded Tesla to overweight from equal-weight, citing the possibility of a buyout by SpaceX.
Meta (META) is down more than -1% as the company boosted its equity sale to $98 billion from $95 billion. The company is selling common and preferred stock to support its AI plans. The company sold $25 billion of common stock on Monday, more than the original plan of $22.5 billion, along with $12.5 billion of preferred shares. The company will also sell up to $60 billion of Class C non-voting shares in an at-the-market stock sale program.
Apple (AAPL) is trading slightly lower after reports emerged on Reddit and other social media sites that users are having problems with cracked screens on the iPhone Duo, Apple’s popular new foldable phone. Bloomberg News independently verified some of these reports. Apple said in a statement that it was “aware of an issue impacting the inner display on a small number of iPhone Duo units,” and that users should contact Apple for a replacement.
Chip stocks are higher across the board, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up +2.0%. Broadcom (AVGO), On Semiconductor (ON), and AMD (AMD) are up by more than +3%. Broadcom (AVGO) is up more than +3% on an upgrade by D.A. Davidson to buy from neutral, citing upside from Anthropic.
Intel (INTC) agreed to buy Israeli startup Classiq Technologies in a bid to expand its reach into quantum computing. Intel’s CEO said, “Joining forces with Classiq transforms Intel’s Quantum Computing Group into a full-stack quantum computing business.”
In a boost for the AI theme, Anthropic filed for its IPO on Nasdaq on Monday, with a ticker symbol of ANT. Anthropic officials hope to match or exceed SpaceX’s blockbuster IPO that raised $86 billion. The road show is expected to begin the week of November 9, and the target pricing window is targeted for the week of November 16.
UPS (UPS) is up u+2% after stronger-than-expected revenue guidance.
Moderna (MRNA) is down more than -7% on a downgrade by William Blair to market perform from outperform due to valuation concerns after the stock’s recent surge.
Coca-Cola (KO) is little changed after some disappointment about a sales miss in North America although the company’s overall results were strong.
Bitcoin is trading slightly higher, supporting crypto stocks. Iren Limited (IREN) is up +6%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up +4%.
GM (GM) is up more than 5% after announcing it will move its listing from the NYSE to Nasdaq to promote its tech-focused approach to automotive EV technology and its likely inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index. The stock will retain its GM ticker symbol.
Earnings Reports (10/27/2026)
Coca-Cola Co/The (KO), CenterPoint Energy Inc (CNP), IQVIA Holdings Inc (IQV), Central BanCo Inc (CBC), Boeing Co/The (BA), SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI), Sherwin-Williams Co/The (SHW), Johnson Controls International (JCI), Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc (LECO), Travel + Leisure Co (TNL), HCA Healthcare Inc (HCA), Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT), Corning Inc (GLW), Ecolab Inc (ECL), Watsco Inc (WSO), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL), Applied Industrial Technologie (AIT), Millrose Properties Inc (MRP), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Innio NV (INIO), Euronet Worldwide Inc (EEFT), Centene Corp (CNC), Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI), CMS Energy Corp (CMS), Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD), Hubbell Inc (HUBB), Galaxy Digital Inc (GLXY), United Parcel Service Inc (UPS), Repligen Corp (RGEN), Pentair PLC (PNR), Xylem Inc/NY (XYL), BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc (BMRN), American Tower Corp (AMT), TransUnion (TRU), Invesco Ltd (IVZ), Hartford Insurance Group Inc/T (HIG), Ensign Group Inc/The (ENSG), S&P Global Inc (SPGI), Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW), Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL), Sensata Technologies Holding P (ST), Landstar System Inc (LSTR), NOV Inc (NOV), BXP Inc (BXP), Chemed Corp (CHE), Robinhood Markets Inc (HOOD), CoStar Group Inc (CSGP), STAG Industrial Inc (STAG), Ventas Inc (VTR), Waste Management Inc (WM), PPG Industries Inc (PPG), Universal Health Services Inc (UHS), Manhattan Associates Inc (MANH), EQT Corp (EQT), ExlService Holdings Inc (EXLS), F5 Inc (FFIV), Visa Inc (V), Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR), Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR), FirstEnergy Corp (FE), Seagate Technology Holdings PL (STX), Expand Energy Corp (EXE), Crane Co (CR), Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH), Range Resources Corp (RRC), WP Carey Inc (WPC), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS), LPL Financial Holdings Inc (LPLA), RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd (RNR), ONEOK Inc (OKE), Teradyne Inc (TER), Baker Hughes Co (BKR).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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